Yuan auction falls short, China stocks due for correction

On the road today updating from my handheld again and feeling incredibly cool and sophisticated, all while reinforcing the popular belief that we are indeed way too dependent on technology these days.

Here are two short excerpts from different Bloomberg articles which shed some light on the true health and capacity of the Chinese economy. What should you take away if you decide to click through to Bloomberg and read the entire articles? Basically that China is a economic powerhouse and still has room to grow. Likewise, it is not a cure all to the woes of the global economy.

This is important to realize because the government in China will do all it can to produce good economic news, sometimes misleading the international investment community. But hey! Most countries do too. ChinaSouthAmerica, as it always does encourages readers to form own opinions and always try to read in between the lines.

1) China Debt Auction Falls Short as Central Bank Tightens Policy

China failed to complete a 28 billion yuan ($4.1 billion) government bond sale for the first time, as the central bank withdrew cash from the financial system to reduce inflation pressures.

The Ministry of Finance sold 27.5 billion yuan of one-year notes at a yield of 1.06 percent, compared with 0.89 percent at the last auction of similar-maturity debt in May, according to Chinabond, the nation's biggest debt-clearing house. Later, the People's Bank of China it said will resume the sale of one-year bills tomorrow after an eight-month suspension.

"The failure to sell all government bonds in an auction is quite rare," said Nie Shuguang, a fixed-income analyst at Industrial Bank Co. in Shanghai. "Investors are worried the central bank will fine-tune its monetary policy and drain capital from the financial market."

To access the complete article visit:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aW2cTXW6tFTk

2) China Stocks Set for 'Sizable Correction', RSI Shows

Chinese stocks may be headed for a "sizable correction" after a so-called momentum indicator for the Shanghai Composite Index advanced to the highest in at least five months.

The 14-day relative strength index, or RSI, for the Shanghai Composite climbed to 83 this week, above the 70 threshold that signals to technical analysts an asset or market is poised to fall. The indicator compares the magnitude of recent gains to losses. The last time the Shanghai gauge's RSI breached the 80 level, in February, the stock measure sank as much as 13 percent in following two weeks.

"The RSI shows that the market is in a pretty overbought situation," said Barole Shiu, a Hong Kong-based technical analyst at UOB-Kay Hian Ltd. "If history repeats itself, there's a very strong chance we'll see a sizable correction."

To access the complete article visit:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asyE100RvlA8

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Mir Global Marketing LLC
http://www.mirglobalmarketing.com
http://www.chinasouthamerica.com

Hong Kong, Taiwan Approve Exchange-Traded Fund Cross-Listings

[Breaking News] -- Bloomberg

Financial regulators in Hong Kong and Taiwan agreed to allow cross-listing of exchange-traded funds in the two markets, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission said on its Web site yesterday.

Indian stocks surge; Sensex advances 17% on Congress win

The bulls were right. Financial markets cheered and celebrated after Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi's Congress Party won nation wide elections.


India's Sensex index surged 17% Monday, forcing a halt trading for the first time ever after the daily limits where breached.

The Indian rupee appreciated 3% against the dollar and the benchmark bond yield fell 12 basis points, the most in weeks according to this Bloomberg article.

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Here is what some of the "financial experts" had to offer Bloomberg and the Financial Times (click links to access each respective article).

“Markets are euphoric,” said Rahul Chadha, the Hong Kong- based head of Indian equities at Mirae Asset Global Investment, with $46 billion in global equities. “The focus by federal and state governments on development will lead to a structural re- rating of India.”

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“The election result is extremely positive and very, very bullish,” Madhusudan Kela, head of equities at Mumbai-based Reliance Capital Asset Management, the nation’s largest money manager overseeing $18 billion of assets, said in an interview. “This will provide a government which is stable and has powers to take decisions.”

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“India is potentially looking at a decade of good reforms and growth,” said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia Pacific economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. “This is a pretty big outcome.

Hong Kong's phone hub for Africa -- Reuters Video

Apr 30 (Reuters) - Africa's phone trade has found a hub in Hong Kong's Chungking Mansions, where an estimated 20 percent of sub-Saharn African handsets originate.

Asia News Wire

India's central bank cuts key rates by 25 basis points -- ChannelNewsAsia

MUMBAI: India's central bank on Tuesday lowered two key short-term interest rates by 25 basis points each, in an effort to arrest a slowdown in Asia's third largest economy.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered the repo – the rate at which it lends to commercial banks – to a record low of 4.75 per cent, from a peak of 9.0 per cent seen last year.

It also announced a cut in the reverse repo – the rate at which it borrows from banks – to 3.25 per cent.

"The major challenge at this stage is to support drivers for demand, to enable the economy to return to a high growth path," RBI governor D. Subbarao said in the annual policy statement for the year to March 2010.

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Hong Kong's composite interest rate falls to 0.29% -- China Securities Journal (CSJ)

Hong Kong's composite interest rate fell to 0.29 percent at the end of March from 0.33 percent at the end of February, the Monetary Authority of Hong Kong said on Tuesday.

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China to launch more stimulus investment in Q2 -- China Securities Journal (CSJ)

The Chinese central government is expected to launch its third batch of stimulus investments in large domestic projects in the second quarter to further boost its economy, according to the China Securities Journal Tuesday, citing an unidentified source.

The central government has so far cashed in a combined 230 billion yuan (33.8 billion U.S. dollars) for its 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package announced last November to bolster the slowing economy, 100 billion yuan in the fourth quarter and 130 billion yuan in the first quarter.

The newspaper said the new money would continue to be poured in projects that could benefit people's livelihood, such as health and education sectors, big infrastructure projects, and housing for low-income earners. Previous investments were dedicated to similar purposes.

An official of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) confirmed the new investment, but said the exact amount was not decided yet. He spoke to Xinhua Tuesday morning on condition of anonymity.

Building China's position in multilaterial organizations

China announced plans to create a $10 billion fund for investment cooperation between itself and its fellow ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) members.

Additionally China will provide a $15 billion credit line to its South East Asian neighbors, further extending its influence in the region.

China has been making its presence known in multilateral organizations around the globe. Recently pledging increased levels of support for organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

Bloomberg reports in this article:

The investment fund will promote infrastructure development linking China with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, while the loans will be offered over three to five years, according to a statement on the Foreign Ministry Web site today citing an interview with Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi.

The measures from the world’s third-largest economy, and one of the few forecast to maintain growth this year, may help speed recovery from the global financial crisis and cement China’s leadership in the region. The nation has already signed currency swap agreements with Indonesia, South Korea, Hong Kong and Malaysia this year to help ease foreign-exchange shortages and aid bilateral trade and investment.

“China is going to take the opportunity of this crisis to further establish itself in Asia,” said Huang Jing, a visiting professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. “All this will have a huge political and diplomatic impact in the region, in addition to the economic impact.”

Check out this link see a post a few weeks back on China & the IMF / IDB.

China and Argentina Agree on Currency Swap --Update from IDB annual meeting in Colombia

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- The central banks of China and Argentina reached an agreement for a three-year, 70 billion yuan ($10 billion) currency swap, Chinese Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told reporters in Medellin, Colombia, today.

It’s the first such accord between the world’s third- biggest economy and a Latin American nation. The move follows swap accords between China and Indonesia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Belarus.

The agreement broadens Argentina’s access to foreign- currency reserves and may ease concerns about the country’s ability to control the peso amid uncertainty over a conflict with farmers over export taxes and legislative elections scheduled for June 28. Argentina wasn’t part of a swap facility program created by the U.S. Federal Reserve for emerging markets, including Brazil and Mexico, last year.

Click here to access this full article from Bloomberg

Hong Kong in focus -- Signs of recovery

As the work came to a close the major news agencies (websites) of Asia was busy reporting about U.S unemployment reaching the highest levels since 1974. Check out the following articles from major news sites of Singapore, Australia and China to read more.

US axed 598,000 jobs -- The Strait Times (Singapore)
US job losses biggest since 1974 -- The Australian
US unemployment rates rises to highest level 16 years -- Xinhua (China)

However there was good news to go around at the end of the week for Hong Kong. For starters home sales in the luxury property market in Hong Kong are rising.

Big deal you might say? Well, in major cities of the world that have the ability to attract global talent like Hong Kong does (NY, London, Paris, Tokyo, etc), prices in the luxury property market are a pretty good gauge of both a over-heating economy and also for an economy “getting back on its feet.” If people are starting to buy again, it means the perception is prices have bottomed to a level where demand and confidence is returning.

“Sales of Hong Kong luxury homes rose to their highest in six months in January, indicating that prices may have stabilized as buyers seek bargains, according to data by Centaline Property Agency Ltd.” Yes a good sign indeed. Click here to read a more comprehensive story on this development from Bloomberg.

Hong Kong stocks also finished the week off higher, rising the most in over a week on speculation the U.S will announce a stimulus plan and help to alleviate the financial crisis.

“The Hang Seng Index added 476.14, or 3.6 percent, to close at 13,655.04, its biggest jump since Jan. 29, and bringing its advance this week to 2.8 percent. The gauge has dropped 5.1 percent this year, extending 2008’s slump of 48 percent, the biggest annual drop since 1974. It’s valued at 11 times estimated earnings, down from 18.7 times at the beginning of last year.” Reported by Bloomberg in this article.

Here's a view of how the Hang Seng (Hong Kong's major stock index) has preformed this past week. Not too bad right?


If anything has been learned from this financial crisis it is that news can turn ugly as quickly as it turns good. More updates to come after we see how the markets play out next week.

News reel: Economic Meltdown p2 – China / Asia

Click on article titles to access the full copy from parent websites


Asian stocks tumble – The Straits Times – Jan 15, 2009

HONG KONG - ASIAN stock markets tumbled on Thursday, with Japan's benchmark sliding almost 5 per cent, on gloomy US holiday sales and renewed concerns about the banking industry.

Every market across Asian suffered steep declines, with broad-based selling hitting industries from energy to financials to exporters. A sharp drop in Japanese machinery pointed to a deepening recession in the world's No. 2 economy, while oil prices continued to fall on worries that the global economic slump will further weaken demand for crude.


China may bailout more – The Straits Times – Jan 15, 2009

BEIJING - CHINA is planning more help for its steel, textile, shipbuilding and other key industries, analysts said on Thursday, a day after the government unveiled a stimulus package for its ailing auto sector.


Chinese slowdown, serious risk for the global economy MercoPress – Jan 15, 2009

A severe economic slowdown in China is one of the biggest risks faced by the world this year, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has warned. The WEF report said a hard landing for China's economy could create domestic social tensions and put stress on the global financial system.


Foreign Direct Investment in China Falls 5.7 Percent (Update3) – Bloomberg - Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) – Foreign Direct Investment in China declined for a third month, adding to the toll that recessions in the U.S. and Europe are taking on the world’s third-biggest economy.

Investment fell 5.7 percent to $5.98 billion in December from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said at a briefing in Beijing today. November’s decline was 36.5 percent.


China Home Prices to Continue Falling Until 2011, DTZ Says – Bloomberg - Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices and sales in China, which fell last year for the first time in a decade, will continue dropping until they reach a “reasonable” level and will rebound in 2011, property agency DTZ said.


Hong Kong Stocks Fall to Two-Month Low; Yue Yuen, HSBC Decline – Bloomberg - Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) – Hong Kong's benchmark stock index fell to the lowest in almost two months on concern slowing demand is deepening the global economic slump.


China-U.S. Ties to Get Stronger, Departing American Envoy Says – Bloomberg - Jan 15, 2009 Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The economies of the U.S. and China, together generating 30 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, will become increasingly interdependent in the next 30 years, said America’s longest-serving envoy to China.


China unveils support package to auto, steel industries – Xinhua – Jan 14, 2009

· China's State Council unveiled a support package for the auto and steel sectors Wednesday.
· The gov't will lower purchase tax on cars under 1.6 liters from 10% to 5% from Jan. 20 to Dec. 31.
· The plan also urges improvements in the credit system for car purchase loans.


SKorea to miss growth forecast - The Straits Times – Jan 15, 2009

SEOUL - SOUTH Korea's economic growth this year could fall below the central bank's forecast of 2 per cent as the global recession deepens, the country's second vice finance minister said in a prepared speech on Thursday.


India’s Sensex Falls to One-Month Low; Infosys Leads Declines – Bloomberg – Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- India’s benchmark stock index fell to the lowest in more than a month. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. and Infosys Technologies Ltd. led declines after a Canadian customer for their software services collapsed.


Satyam May Take 3 Months to Restate Accounts, Delaying Bailout – Bloomberg – Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) – Satyam Computer Services Ltd.'s new auditors may take three months to clear up an alleged $1 billion fraud at India's fourth-largest software exporter, delaying access to government funds.

Satyam fell 32 percent today after the government said it has no plans for a bailout until the board seeks aid. Satyam won't know how much it needs until auditors confirm assets and assess how much clients owe, director Deepak Parekh said. ``The government doesn't bail out every sick company,'' he said.


India’s Inflation Rate Falls, Paving Way for Stimulus (Update2) – Bloomberg – Jan 15, 2009

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- India’s inflation slowed to an 11- month low, paving the way for further stimulus measures to bolster an economy expanding at the weakest pace in six years.

Hungry for IPO's in 2009? Do Chinese and Brazilian firms have the capacity or guts to test the market?

It seems just yesterday that Chinese IPO's where the talk of the town. Even if you were not buying them yourself, it still seemed as if everyone else was. When you consider what an IPO is, it's no wonder why the investment communities appetite for them has disappeared.

When companies go public they offer a certain portion of their company to shareholders. In exchange shareholders invest their money in hopes of seeing a given company grow and prosper. If a company grows and prospers, shareholders are rewarded by seeing the value of their investments rise. If the company preforms poorly investors see their investments loose value.

If you have cash lying around would you trust your money in a company looking to expand or finance some project in the context of the economic climate today?


Chinese companies are feeling the pinch, turning to banks instead the stock market to raise the capital they need. The Financial Times reports “Mainland companies last year raised a record $100bn in IPOs on exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong – far more than established bourses in New York or London.”

(Click here to access the full article from the Financial Times)

In response, the Chinese Government is attempting to encourage banks to lend to companies looking for expansion capital. The recent interest rate cuts make lending cheaper, which will help entice banks to lend, but if history repeats itself Chinese banks may find themselves with a great deal of outstanding loans that can not be repaid.

This happened in the late 90's and it could happen again. Especially if the Chinese economy is not able to weather the global recession as well as many hope. Additionally, many IPO's from 2006 and 2007 benefits not from legitimate investments from people who had faith in their business, but rather from speculative investors who wanted a piece of the profits.

Chinese media, Xinhua, reports Pricewaterhouse Cooper (PwC) expects IPO's will rise in value by 45% in the second half of 2009 as a result of the government stimulus package. PwC forecasts Companies will raise about 150 billion yuan (22 billion U.S. dollars) through IPOs in China in 2009.”

State media in China should be analyzed with a bit of skepticism for obvious reasons (it is filtered if you didn't know). This fact alone contradicts with the figures presented by the Financial Times that in 2009 over $100bn was raised. It would be nice to be told what base measure they are using when they figure the 45% increase. If anyone feels like checking out the PwC report you might be able to find out.

(Click here to access the full article from Xinhua)

Brazilian IPO's also seem to be having a tough time, as reported by Bloomberg LP today.

“The point isn’t that VisaNet isn’t interested in listing, but that there have been problems, in this market, in pricing the offer in a way that shareholders will be satisfied,” said Victor Mizusaki at Sao Paulo-based Itau Corretora, the brokerage unit of Brazil’s biggest non-state bank. “There is a deadline to turn in all the paperwork and to price the offer, and the time limit was running out.”

Brazil’s boom in IPOs dried up last year with only four companies going public compared with 64 in 2007 as the global financial crisis sent the benchmark Bovespa index down 41 percent and reduced investors’ appetite for riskier emerging-market assets. Companies raised more than 70 billion reais through initial and additional stock sales in 2007, according to data from exchange owner BM&FBovespa SA.

(Click here to access the full article from from Bloomberg LP)

All in all, I'd say IPO's are going to far and wide in the developing world for 2009. All these countries have seen the incredible attraction they garner when times are good and investors are flowing with confidence and money. They also see that when times are bad, people will pick and choose their investments very carefully. Meaning far less appetite for risky investments, in particular with companies that have yet to face the pressure of being traded and valued within the context of this chaotic and unpredictable market.