have mentioned before on ChinaSouthAmerica ran a great overview
yesterday of how Latin America has handled the current global economic
crisis.
FX Perspectives in Latin AmericaIn contrast to Emerging Europe, Latin
America has emerged out of the crisis as more resilient. This is so in
part because of flexible exchange rates, lower leverage than Emerging
Europe and better macro conditions.
In fact, some countries in Latin America are implementing counter
cyclical fiscal policies to fight the external crisis. The key
countries using counter cyclical fiscal policy in Latam are Brazil,
Peru and Chile. This differentiation adds to the perception that Latin
American credit ratings lag other emerging markets and the near-term
prospects for rating actions in regards to several regional countries
on the cusp of an investment grade including Brazil, Colombia, Panama,
Peru and Costa Rica point to the upside.
Regarding growth, we believe GDP will converge to its potential level
by mid 2010. In the absence of significative inflationary pressures,
it is hardly possible that monetary authorities in key Latam countries
hike rates until Q2 2010. In turn, it is possible that FX play an
imoportant role especially considering that moderate growth rates may
also induce central banks to become more tolerant with eventual
currency weakness.
To read more from Victoria, check out this post at her site located at
http://brazilandeconomics.blogspot.com/
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Benito
International Trade Consultant
Mir Global Marketing LLC
http://www.mirglobalmarketing.com
http://www.chinasouthamerica.com
