Saturday, July 12, 2008

Flooding continues in China... (again)

CPM Group says global molybdenum supply deficits will grow in 2009 and 2010

In its latest molybdenum market study, CPM says tight credit market s and other developments have caused molybdenum’s forward supply curve to shift over the past year. Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Thursday , 10 Jul 2008

Commodities research firm CPM Group says financing for molybdenum mining projects "has become an uphill battle for some of the new primary and by-product producers."

Meanwhile, the delays in bring new primary moly or copper/moly mining projects on line have exacerbated the moly supply deficits forecast for 2009 and 2010, according to CPM's study, The Sustainability of Recent Molybdenum Prices, 2008

"These higher production costs-combined with robust demand in the energy industry, narrow inventory levels, and expectations that molybdenum supplies will not exceed demand on a sustained basis are expected to boost the floor prices of molybdenum," according to a news release issued by CPM Wednesday.

"Demand is not only growing in the principal end uses of molybdenum, but in newer industries that are seeking to utilize molybdenum's significant alloying properties," according to CPM.


Click here to access the fully article from

Brazil to Sell Oil Fields at Auction

Brazil will auction oil fields, except for the newly discovered pre-salt areas, authorities said Thursday.

Brazilian Basins

Brazil's National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, a regulatory department for the industry sectors concerning the natural resources, will restart the eighth round of auctions of oil fields, which had been suspended by a court dispute, Minister of Mines and Energy Edison Lobao said.


Click here to access the full article provided by Rigzone. Copyright (c) Xinhua News, 2008

Venezuela and Colombia make up and begin discussing Orinoco Oil Projects

Venezuela and Colombia are set to discuss possible joint development projects in the oil rich Orinoco belt when the presidents of both countries meet Friday, the Colombian ambassador to Venezuela,
Fernando Marin, said.

"The Venezuelan government has told us that it's important for them to have Colombian presence in the Orinoco belt. It's something that we're eager t
o talk about," Marin told Dow Jones Newswires.


Allowing for Colombia's presence in the Orinoco belt would be a surprising gesture by Venezuela, given the recent diplomatic disputes between both countries, which escalated to threats of war in March. Chavez has threatened on several occasions to shut imports from Colombia.

Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt, Venezuela


Click here access the full article. Provided by Rigzone and Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & company, Inc.

China's crude oil import volume up 11%

China's Crude Oil Import Volume Up 11%

Crude imports stood at 90.53 million tons, the General Administration of Customs said on Thursday. The growth rate was down 0.2 percentage points from last year. The imports were valued at 64.98 billion U.S. dollars, up 85.8 percent, as world prices surged. Import prices hit a record high of 849.10 U.S. dollars per ton in June. Angola, Saudi Arabia, and Iran were the top three oil suppliers. China also imported 21.01 million tons of refined oil products in the first half, up 16.4 percent year-on-year.
Xinhua News Agency - China, the world's second-largest energy consumer, imported 11 percent more crude oil in the first half of 2008 than in the year-earlier period.


Click here
to view full article from Xinhua news courtesey of

Friday, July 11, 2008

China, Mexico etablish strategic dialogue mechanism reports Xinhua News

BEIJING, July 11 (Xinhua) -- China and Mexico announced the establishment of a strategic dialogue mechanism on Friday during talks between Chinese President Hu Jintao and his Mexican counterpart Felipe Calderon Hinojosa.

Chinese President Hu Jintao (R) shakes hands with Mexican President Felipe Calderon Hinojosa during the welcoming ceremony Hu hosts for him at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, July 11, 2008. (Xinhua Photo)

During the talks, Hu put forward a four-point proposal to cement Sino-Mexican relations:

--Strengthening political dialogue, maintaining high-level contact, and realizing the action plan from 2006 to 2010 to promote strategic partnership;

--Boosting a win-win economic cooperation. The Chinese government encourages its enterprises to invest in Mexico's infrastructure including ports, roads, and hydroelectric stations, and supports cooperation on mining, telecommunication, agriculture and the fishing industry;

--Pushing personnel exchanges in the fields of culture, education, traditional medicine and social development;

--Promoting multilateral cooperation and consultation on major international affairs so as to safeguard the legal rights of developing countries..................

Click here to access the full article from Xinhua News

Aluminum price closes at US$1.48/lb on the London Metals Exchange (LME)

Aluminum prices are soaring... That is obvious. What is interesting is that despite a near 40% rise since the beginning of 2008, record high energy costs, a ever worsening credit / mortgage crisis, a sinking US$ both the aggregate demand and supply of aluminum remain strong.

Aluminum is a relatively labor and energy intensive metal to produce in a pure form which is suitable for use in relatively complex industry and production lines. Record high energy prices of recent have made it so that Aluminum is naturally more expensive to produce.

Second, global efforts (if you go as far to call it an "effort) to combat climate change has also caused the price of producing aluminum to rise. Aluminum producers must account for any damaging effects production causes and either.

Last, and arguably the most significant is the seemingly insatiable demand stemming from the developing world, which despite a 40% rise in the price of Aluminum this year, demand has only continued to increase.

A little outdated perhaps, the chart below indicates by 2005 China's aluminum consumption had grown to represent roughly 23% of global demand, surpassing the United States.

The nice pie chart below breaks down global production of aluminum. The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) alone in 2006 accounted for 45% of total aluminum production. Developing countries have emerged as a signifcant force on both the supply and demand sides of aluminum trade.

It is no wonder, even with record high prices there appears to be little reasons to believe in a price correction or slow down in demand in the near or long term.

Click here to read Business News America's article on rising aluminum prices.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Commodities in Focus: Peru: Gold Mining --- China: Iron Ore Imports

South African gold miner, Gold Fields Considers expansion of Peruvian Mine

South Africa`s Gold Fields will consider doubling the size of its US$450 million Cerro Corona copper and gold project in Peru once the mine reaches full output in December, it was reported on Thursday.

Juan Luis Kruger, the head of Gold Fields` South American operations, told South Africa`s Business Report, the company`s equivalent reserves in Peru, which include gold and copper-rich ore, could reach as much as 5.7Moz, up from 5Moz, due to higher metal prices. ...............

Click here to access the full story from The

China Iron Ore Imports rise 22% in first half

China, the world`s top steel producer and consumer, imported 230Mt tonnes of iron ore in the first half, up 22.5% from a year earlier, and analysts said the momentum is not likely to ease in the second half.

Most iron ore mines in northern Chinese provinces, which account for the bulk of domestic output, have halted production ahead of the August Beijing Olympics, forcing local steel mills to source more imported ores, they said.

"It is very likely that some steel makers in northern China are building up stocks for their production during the Olympics period," said Macquarie Bank analyst, Henry Liu. ..................

Click here
to access the full story from

China... ready to show off the results of Beijing's pre-Olympic construction boom

Photos and descriptions obtains from Xinhua, China's state media.

Beijing's Olympic "Forest Park"

Photo taken on July 6, 2008 shows courtyard houses "knitted" with pipes at the man-made sinkage square in the Olympic Forest Park in Beijing, capital of China. The sinkage square is dubbed as "palace under ground", or "the corridor for traditional Chinese arts", which has its seven "exhibition courtyards" like ancient-styled Chinese palace gate, booth, chime, red walls in line, displaying traditional Chinese culture and arts to athletes and visitors from around the world. (Xinhua Photo)

China Central Television headquarter building

China Millennium Monument-Great Altar

Terminal 3 -- Beijing Capital International Airport

National Center for the Performing Arts

South-South Cooperation in Focus -- Brazilian president seeks stronger trade ties during his first trip to Vietnam

Brazilian Present Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is in Hanoi, Vietnam meeting with Vietnam's leader, Nguyen Minh Triet to discuss increasing trade ties between the two nations. Vietnam's state media released a statement saying quite comically "it hoped to benefit from Brazil's foodtball skills."

Hanoi, Vietnam - Lula and Triet

"Vietnam wishes to strengthen cooperation with Brazil in all areas, particularly the economy, trade and investment, oil and gas, seafood processing, education, health and fighting poverty," Triet said.

Trade between Brazil and Vietnam rose to US$323 million last year from US$43 million five years earlier, said Silva, who is traveling with a delegation of business leaders.

Lula will be moving on in the coming days to East Timor and Indonesia to discuss increasing trade and bilateral connections with them as well. These developments indicate Brazil is expanding its horizons beyond China and India, the regions big players and now seeking to shore up support and new markets in South-East Asia.

Lets go Globalization....!

Leaders of the BRIC Countries show signs of solidarity at the G-8 meeting in Hokkaido, Japan

China's foreign media is reporting Hu Jintao's participation in the G-8 summit this week as a milestone, calling it a "major diplomatic move which produces important achievements in many aspects for China."

Click here to access the full story from Xinhua-- China's State Media

Through the G8 outreach session in recent years, communications between the world's developed and developing countries have been conducted on key issues to coordinate stance and seek solutions to key issues, a move deemed conducive to the South-North cooperation and the settlement of global problems reports Xinhua.

It is interesting how China's state media describes Hu Jintao's presence at the G-8. Western press has been very critical as to why China, India and other emerging markets are not included in the some of the more important meetings which only the actual G-8 member countries can attend.

It is clear developing countries have gained some influence in the international arena. The global food crises, energy crises, climate change and other important issues can no longer be left to debate soely amongst the world's industrialized and wealthiest nations.

Described both in this upate and in my post yesterday, developing countries are increasingly forming their own strong connections with one another. The leaders of the BRIC countries; Brazil, Russia, India and China can be seen below expressing their solidarity at the end of the G-8 summit.
These four emerging market giants want to make it clear that on certain issues they stand united and that when united their voice should not and can not be ignored.

After all, accounting for only the populations of the BRIC countries, these four nations represent roughly 2.7 billion people...

Chinese President Hu Jintao (2nd R), Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (2nd L), Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (1st L) and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (1st R) pose for a photo as they meet at Toyako in Hokkaido, north Japan, on July 9, 2008. (Xinhua Photo)

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Peru, China reaffirm will to negociate FTA -- reports

Chinese state media Xinhua News reported on July 3rd -- Peru, China reaffirm will to negociate FTA

Editor: Sun Yunlong

LIMA, July 3 (Xinhua) -- Peruvian Minister of Foreign Trade and Tourism (Mincetur) said Thursday that Peru and China have reaffirmed their political will to continue negotiations for a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

Mercedes Araoz made the remarks after the 4th Round of FTA Negotiations between the two countries concluded here Thursday.

"The dialogue must not stop, we have had work meetings at negotiators level, the vice minister (of Exterior Trade, Eduardo Ferreyros) and myself have talked with the chief negotiator of China and we have agreed that there is all the political will to find a solution," Araoz said.

"We want the agreement to be something viable for both countries, to seek mutual benefit, not to affect our interests," Araoz added.

Araoz said the Peruvian negotiation team, formed by members of Mincetur, is also discussing with the Peruvian private sector to take their position into account to ensure a proper negotiation.

Peru and China aim to sign an FTA during the APEC summit scheduled for next November in Peru.

South America News in Focus -- Brazil, Ecuador and Chile

Articles collected from Bloomberg LP

Brazil --

Lula May Increase Brazil's Oil Take as Tupi Spurs Rules Review
By Jeb Blount

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (photo on the right) may boost the government's stake in oil fields after the largest discovery in the Americas since 1976 prompted a review of rules for how petroleum deposits are developed.

Lula is examining how Brazil and producers will share revenue from offshore deposits that may hold more than $6 trillion of oil at current prices. Lula said the Tupi discovery and nearby prospects will at least triple Brazil's crude reserves, and he wants the wealth to be shared nationwide.

``This oil is ours, it belongs to the people, not Petrobras or Shell,'' Lula said in a June 26 interview in Brasilia, referring to state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. ``The wealth is not for the few, it's for the many.'' ....................

Click here to read the full story at Bloomberg LP

Brazil May Take Other Measures to Curb Inflation (Update1)

By Adriana Brasileiro and Carla Simoes

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil will take ``all necessary measures'' to curb inflation that's accelerating faster than the government forecast, Planning and Budget Minister Paulo Bernardo said.

``Saying that nobody in the government is worried about inflation is an exaggeration,'' Bernardo said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Brasilia today. ``But we don't see any reason for panic. The government has


Inflation as measured by the IPCA-15 index accelerated to 0.9 percent increase in the month through June 15, the fastest in four years, from a 0.56 percent rise in the previous month. The increase exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey that forecast a 0.78 percent rise.......................

Click here to read the full story at Bloomberg LP

Ecuador --

Ecuador's Dollar Bonds Rebound as Salgado Eases Default Concern
By Lester Pimentel

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador's bonds rose, rebounding from their biggest rout in almost a year, after new Finance Minister Wilma Salgado said the government will keep paying its debt.

The extra yield investors demand to own Ecuador's debt rather than U.S. Treasuries narrowed 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, to 6.53 percentage points at 10:04 a.m. in New York, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI Plus index. The so-called spread surged 54 basis points yesterday, the most since Aug. 16. ........................


The yield on Ecuador's 10 percent bonds maturing in 2030 fell 13 basis points to 10.71 percent, according to JPMorgan. The bond's price gained 1 cent to 94 cents on the dollar.

Click here to read the full story at Bloomberg LP

Chile --

Chile Economists Lift 2008 Inflation Forecast to 7.5% (Update1) By Sebastian Boyd

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Chilean economists raised their inflation forecast for this year by 2 percentage points, a central bank survey of economists showed.

Consumer prices will rise 7.5 percent this year, according to the median estimate of 36 economists in a survey carried out between July 2 and July 8. Economists had expected 5.5 percent inflation in last month's survey.


Chile's central bank aims for inflation expectations inside its target range of between 2 percent and 4 percent over a two- year horizon. The median estimate of 31 economists in this month's survey was for inflation of 3.8 percent in June 2009. ..........................

Click here to read the full story on Bloomberg LP

Bejing Prepares to Deliver -- Reuters

Reuters Video

Jul 8 - One month to go until the Olympics and Beijing prepares to deliver the games as worries about pollution persist.

In the wake of concern voiced by some of the games participants Chinese state media reported that two key measures of pollution had fallen slightly in what the country's environmental regulator cast as a victory in the right for more sustainable development.

Beijing expects to play host to between 450,000 and 500,000 overseas visitors during the August Olympics, only marginally up from the 420,000 who came in the same period last year.

Tyra Dempster reports.

Why are Latin American Economies Booming? -- Exerpt from Victoria Saddi's post on Latin America EconoMonitor

Why Are Latin Countries Booming? The Role of Good Policies

- Victoria Saddi - July 8, 2008

There are two alternative views about the future resilience of the recent strong economic performance of Latin American economies:

1. One approach is that Latin countries have implemented deep macro and financial reforms. According to this view, the recent boom is something permanent and less dependent on the US business cycles than before. Hence, if the US experiences a recession, Latin countries will be affected but their solid macro foundations tend to soften the impact of US slowdown;

2. The second approach is that global conditions and luck helped a lot in the recent EM performance and a correction will come. Fundamentals have improved but spreads have tightened excessively relative to economic fundamentals

Click here to read the rest of the article courtesy of Latin America Econo Monitor

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico meet to discuss increasing "South-South cooperation," among developing countries

Chinese President Hu Jintao put froward four main areas in which developing countries could cooperate and coordinate to promote development of the "global south."

Hu Jintao stated China and the four other developing countries in which he met with have "vast potential for cooperation." He also stressed the "importance of strengthening solidarity and cooperation."

Chinese President Hu Jintao (2nd R) pose for photos with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (1st R), Mexican President Felipe Calderon (C), Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (2nd L) and South African President Thabo Mvuyelwa Mbeki before their meeting in Sapporo, northern Japan, July 8, 2008. (Xinhua Photo)

*** Click here to access the full story from Xinhua, China's state media

It is clear the influence of the "G-8" is quickly fading. Despite the economic and political influence in which the the world's richest nations still maintain in the world, developing nations have begun their ascent in the World Economy.

China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa together are in their own respect the leaders of their own respective continents... at least in terms of size and economic might.

This recent development is only one example of how emerging markets are increasingly finding strength from one another markets and respective economic growth, as opposed to relying on demand and markets in the developed world.

Jim Roger's offers his comments on the rising prices of commodities and where the market is heading

Commodity Guru Jim Rogers stated in a interview earlier this weekend, "the severe oil supply shortage could take futures prices even higher."

Monday, July 7, 2008

PetroVietnam and Petroecuador sign strategic energy cooperation agreement

PetroVietnam, Petroecuador sign a strategic agreement to start cooperating in oil and gas field exploration, production, transportation, storage, processing and trading said state media on Saturday in Hanoi, Vietnam.

(Click here to view full article from

The agreement will be valid for two years, which really makes it more of a "test" to see if the two countries national oil companies can function efficiently with one another. Two years in reality is a short time period if they hope to accomplish all the above listed cooperation objectives. It will no less allow the two countries to see if this new strategic alliance is worth pursuing.

It is refreshing to read news of cooperation between countries in South America and other Asian countries aside from the China. China is undoubtedly the "juggernaut" of Asia's emerging markets, but it is hardly alone, and developments such as this are proof that South America will grow closer to Asia as a whole with time... not just the PRC (China).

China-South America Trade and Finance
will continue to monitor this development between Vietnam and Ecuador, and post updates to keep readers up to date on this new trans-pacific alliance.

Chinese stocks (on the mainland) surge over 4.5% in their biggest gain in over a month

The Shanghai Composite index which tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listedon the Shanghai Stock Exchanger rose 4.59% Monday.

The CSI 300 Index, a cap-weighted listing, tracks the daily price performance of the 300 most representative A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai + Shenzhen Stock Exchanges rose 5.13% on Monday trading.

Chinese markets are souring? The short answer (in my opinion):

- Financial on the mainland report better than expected earnings and developments
- Speculative investing in Olympic related Stocks.

- Oversold market
- Lower crude oil prices

For a full story, following the rise in China last night, check out the following story from Bloomberg LP.

China Stocks Advance Most in Three Weeks; Merchants Bank Rises
-- Click here for full story

By Zhang Shidong and Chua Kong Ho

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks rose the most in almost three weeks, led by banking shares, after China Merchants Bank Co. and China Citic Bank Corp. said first-half earnings probably more than doubled.

Merchants Bank, the country's most profitable bank, had its biggest jump in more than two months. Citic Bank, the banking unit of the nation's largest investment company, gained for a fourth day. Beijing North Star Co., the city government's property arm, jumped on speculation next month's Olympic Games will lure more tourists to the capital city.

``Fundamentals are very strong in China compared to any other Asian nation,'' said Liu Yang, managing director at Atlantis Investment Management Ltd. in Hong Kong, which oversees about $4 billion in assets, in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``Chinese stocks are trading at crisis valuations. Do they deserve to trade at crisis valuations? The answer is no. The market deserves a very good rebound from here.''