Saturday, May 23, 2009

Weekend Newswire: Latin America

Bolivia and US agree to improve bilateral ties
Bolivian President Evo Morales has called for a complete overhaul of his country’s strained ties with the US. He urged “mutual respect” between the two nations, saying Washington should not interfere in Bolivia’s affairs.

Venezuelan Bonds Sink to Six-Week Low as Chavez Takeovers Fuel `Distrust'
Venezuela’s benchmark bonds fell to a six-week low after President Hugo Chavez announced the government will take over the hot-briquetted iron industry and other metal companies.

Chavez Takes Control of Venezuela's Hot-Briquetted Iron, Steel Industries
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced the government will take over the hot-briquetted iron industry and other metal companies, increasing its control over the nation’s mineral-wealth industries.

Venezuelan Oil Keeps Attracting Bidders in Bets That Chavez Isn't Forever
Chevron Corp. and Total SA are pursuing new Venezuelan oil projects after President Hugo Chavez tore up past agreements, seized assets of contractors and expelled producers that wouldn’t accept new terms.

Cash short Venezuela negotiating loans from Brazil

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, whose administration is facing cash shortages as oil revenues plunge, is negotiating loans from Brazil’s development bank to fund infrastructure projects, revealed the Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Stocks Gain on Signs of Rising Demand, Commodities; Bolsa Rises Brazil’s

Bovespa index climbed, capping a weekly advance, on speculation domestic demand is recovering and as investors bought commodities to hedge against a weakening dollar.

Brazil's Vale Lowers This Year's Planned Investments to $9 Billion From $14 Billion
Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, said falling costs and a stronger dollar allowed it to cut 2009 planned capital spending by 37 percent.

Mexican Billionaire Salinas May Enter California to Boost Hispanic Banking
Banco Azteca, controlled by Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas, says the financial crisis offers the bank a chance to enter the U.S. market and lure Hispanic customers.

Pemex Is `Too Optimistic' About Chicontepec Development, Board Member Says
Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil company, should reconsider its $11.1 billion plan for the Chicontepec field because lower oil prices make the investment less attractive, said newly appointed board member Fluvio Ruiz.


Chinese Would-Be Suicide Pushed by Angry Bystander

[Headlines you never thought you would read] -- Xinhua

Would-be suicide Chen Fuchao was pushed off the Haizhu Bridge by a passerby after his threat to jump held up traffic for five hours in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.

Lai Jiangsheng, 66, broke through a police cordon and pushed Chen off the bridge on the morning of May 21, Xinhua said. Chen, who was considering suicide because he was 2 million yuan ($293,000) in debt after a failed construction project, fell onto a partially inflated air cushion, damaging his spine and elbow, and was hospitalized, the report said.


Hong Kong, Taiwan Approve Exchange-Traded Fund Cross-Listings

[Breaking News] -- Bloomberg

Financial regulators in Hong Kong and Taiwan agreed to allow cross-listing of exchange-traded funds in the two markets, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission said on its Web site yesterday.


Friday, May 22, 2009

Argentina's debt; finding a middle ground

[Argentina Analysis] -- Perspective from a recent college graduate with a econ degree

Argentina's beloved Maradona

When I entered American University in 2004, one of the most popular topics of conversation among the students studying International Relations or Economics, was the Argentine economic crisis of 1999-2002.

As a young Peruvian-American, studying economics, I frequently found myself debating the event with people from all over the world, including Latinos. It seemed that students, teachers and the authors of our textbooks had all gotten together and decided to use Argentina as a prime example of how

a) The Washington Consensus had failed

b) The IMF and other regional lenders had doomed Argentina by lending money with unfair "strings attached"

Let me make one thing clear... American University is a VERY liberal school.

I quickly came to feel a consensus had been reached within the classrooms of American University (AU). Argentina emerged as the symbolic victim of IMF abuses and the misguided Washington Consensus of the 90's.

Pegging the peso to the U.S Dollar, initially a wise decision to help stem inflation, was doomed to fail from the start because there would be no way Argentina's industrial and labor sectors would be able to adjust to a appreciating dollar.

Economists and foreign policy buffs at AU did not argue the value of having a lending system, the global economy after all needs one. However, it became very easy "for the average Joe" to accept Argentina's default during this era of backlash against the Washington Consensus and also of course in the midst of a liberal University environment.

I will be posting this article on the American University Alumni LinkedIn and Facebook group, hoping to get some feedback from students currently attending. Which I will then share on

If you have not yet heard or read, there are a few "liberal democrats" in the House of Representatives trying to get Argentina to pay up. I have included a few paragraphs from this MercoPress article which outlines their efforts.


The bill, H.R. 2493, called the Judgment Evading Foreign States Accountability Act of 2009, would bar from US capital markets any nation that has been in default of US court judgments totaling more than 100 million US dollars for more than two years. The legislation would also require the US government to consider the default status of these countries before granting them aid.

"Argentina is ignoring billions of dollars in US court judgments, which has hurt not just US citizens, but also Argentine citizens," said ATFA Executive Director Robert Raben. "US taxpayers are still waiting to be repaid money they lent to Argentina in good faith."

The effort is being led by Representative Eric Massa, a Democrat from New York State who was raised in Argentina while his father served as US Naval Attaché in Buenos Aires. Also introducing the legislation were Representatives Paul Tonko (D-NY), Robert Wexler (D-FL), Timothy Bishop (D-NY), Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), Dan Maffei (D-NY), Mike McMahon (D-NY), Ed Towns (D-NY), and Brian Higgins (D-NY).


Generally speaking, Latin America was happy with the election of Barack Obama. Many experts believe, and I happen to agree, a new era in U.S-Latin American relations has been initiated. After eight long years of being ignored by President Bush who would argue?

In Argentina, Obama's election was welcomed by Cristina Fernandez. However, as this MercoPress article explains, Argentina's President is finding herself increasingly isolated. The most frequent visitor to Argentina has become Hugo Chavez. Fernandez has not been invited to the White House like her Brazilian and Chilean counterparts. Obama also neglected to make a pit-stop in Argentina, as he did in Mexico, on the way to the Summit of the Americas. For the third largest country in Latin America after Brazil and Mexico, this should be insulting, and... indicative of the way the international community and the United States currently view Argentina.

"Che! We got no money!"

Additionally, within the region, Argentina has ongoing political disputes with: neighboring Chile over energy exports, with Uruguay over a bridge that links the two countries, various trade disputes with Brazil within the Mercosur community, and has banned the crossing of Bolivian and Paraguayan soybeans through Argentine territory--which much infuriate two land lock countries trying to export their produce.

Joaquin Morales Solá, a leading political analyst, writing a column in La Nacion recalls, "that there have been no major foreign visitors to Argentina for over two years, precisely since then President Nestor Kirchner left the Queen of Holland waiting at an official ceremony; he never turned up and never apologized. The only and sporadic “business” visits have been from Chavez, Lula da Silva and Bolivia’s Evo Morales."

Furthermore Obama is not Bush, he’s one of the most popular world leaders and Chavez short of oil revenue can’t attack the US president. Nevertheless says Morales Solá, the only leader visiting Argentina is heading for the perfect dictatorship: a ban on the import of books and only official Chavez, Bolivar and Marx texts at school. The leader of the Venezuelan opposition and elected mayor of the country’s second largest city was forced to take refuge in Peru; the nationalization of industries, confiscation of companies and land advances since “private property” can’t be an impediment for the revolution. Chavez is determined to end with the independent media and has virtually broken relations with Israel and the local Venezuelan Jewish community.

So with all this drama... let me now ask. "Should Argentina be forced to pay back its debt to foreign creditors?

When I was a first year university student I would have answered NO. Five years later, my answer has changed, albeit slightly.

Yes, the polcies put in place by the IMF in Argentina in the late 90's were extremly unfair. I am not debating this. However, I do not think it is wise for Argentina to continue refusing to pay their debt. Ecuador recently followed in Argentina's footsteps, defaulting on their own foreign debt as bonds came due. Both countries have offered their debt holders reduced payback (ie: $.50 to the $1.00), but as of now no deal has yet to be reached with Argentina and their creditors.

According to this MercoPress article, a team of Argentine economists concluded in 2006 that Argentina's default status causes the nation to lose more than 6 billion US dollars in foreign direct investment every year, reports MercoPress in this article.

Furthermore, by the estimates of the President of the American Task Force Argentina (ATFA), Robert Raben "President Kirchner has said several times she's prepared to negotiate with bondholders, but we've seen no action whatsoever," Raben said. "Argentina has 45 billion in reserves and can afford to pay its 3.5 billion in debts to US bondholders many times over. It's time to resolve this issue for the benefit of both nations."

Of course this doesn't mean they can afford to use their $45 billion to pay off international investors... they need it for many other things like making sure the Argentine Peso doesn't slip off the fact of the earth. Nonetheless it does not help when you consider the creditors are aware of this, and that Argentina's leadership has been incredibly unwilling to compromise.

I know one thing, Latin America will continue to need to borrow money. The Bank of the South and other regional lending institutions can not replace the United States or the IMF any time soon.

Argentina can cry about how unfair the loans they must repay are, but reaching some type of deal would at least allow Argentina to gain access to international capital markets once again. For a country with so much potential, the current government really knows how to hold a grudge.


Thursday, May 21, 2009

Nononprofits Sometimes on Cutting Edge of Technology

[Microfinance] - PC World Article

One example is the way that microfinance agencies build databases and other back-end systems to manage their work. Some microfinance institutions are running on manual systems or spreadsheets, said Peter Bladin, founding director of the Grameen Foundation's technology center. "Given how transaction intensive this is, it's amazing they don't have more sophisticated technology," he said.

Microfinance organizations sometimes try to buy a system that has been developed for a similar business but find it doesn't quite fit. Or they may try employing software developed for banks but also find they don't work quite right. Customization of such software is too expensive and unrealistic for most microfinance institutions, Bladin said.

So Grameen helped drive the effort to create Mifos, an open-source management information system designed for microfinance. "The beauty is anybody with technical skills can have access to the source code and enhance it," he said. "We have people writing code around the world and feeding it back."

NetHope is also developing programs to support members. For instance, it is setting up an IT help desk that Accenture is helping with that will offer 24-hour technical support to employees of member companies.

Click here to read the full article from PC World


Brazil and China move toward convertible currency

[South-South Cooperation] -- Brazil, China -- Latin America and Brazil

Vitoria Saddi shares her analysis of the latest news to emerge from this weeks meetings between Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Chinese President Hu Jintao. If you have not already checked out Victoria's site, Latin America and Brazil, I highly recommend you do.


As we all know, president Lula is in China this week. It seems that one of the goals of his visit is to enable Brazil and China to use their own currencies in trade transactions, rather than the US dollar. The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency. It should be clear that this deal is different from what China is doing with Argentina – currency swap. In the Brazil - China deal Brazil would pay for Chinese goods with reais and China would pay for Brazilian goods with renminbi. The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency.

In our view, this is an important step towards convertibility. Clearly, the country can afford to have a convertible currency because it has a healthy balance of payments and the government has been taking steps towards convertibility.

Click here to read the full article from Latin America and Brazil


Brazil, India - Bilateral trade to reach $10 bil by 2010

[South-South Cooperation] -- Brazil, India -- ChennaiVision

Mumbai, The bilateral trade between India and Brazil is targeted to reach USD 10 billion by 2010 in view of the new dynamics of South-South cooperation, accelerated by recession hitting the West, CII International Trade Panel Chairperson Harshbeena Zaveri said today.

”The bilateral trade between the two countries has grown from a mere 500 million US dollars in 2000 to 3.12 billion US dollars in 2007 and is targeted to reach USD 10 billion by 2010”, Ms Zaveri, who is also president of NRB Bearings Pvt Ltd said during a conference with the Brazilian industry delegation, that is visiting the to give an impetus to trade and investment.

Click here to access the complete article from ChennaiVision


Tuesday, May 19, 2009

China and Brazil seal $10 billion deal

[South-South Cooperation] -- China, Brazil

Lula da Silva & Hu Jintao

Chinese President Hu Jintao and his Brazilian counterpart, Lula da Silva, finished writing the latest chapter in Sino-Brazilian Cooperation earlier today in Beijing.

ChinaSouthAmerica has been following this story for a few months now, and I must say, it is nice to see a classic example of South-South Cooperation / Emerging Market Cooperation (whatever you want to call it) develop and eventually get finalized.

Here are a few excerpts from a WSJ article that a great job of summing up the details.


State-owned Brazilian oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA said it finalized a $10 billion loan agreement from China in return for a long-term supply of oil, another victory for China's new strategy of using its cash-rich banks to help secure the natural resources the country needs to keep its economy growing.

Petroleo Brasileiro, known as Petrobras, said under the terms of the 10-year loan from China Development Bank, which has been at the center of China's resources policy, Brazil would supply China Petrochemical Corp., known as Sinopec, 150,000 barrels of oil a day for the first year, rising to 200,000 barrels a day for another nine years.


Mr. Gabrielli said the loan's interest rate was under 6.5%, and the loan used oil revenue as collateral but would be repaid in cash -- not oil. Although the deal didn't include guarantees to buy Chinese products or services, other deals will work on exploring closer cooperation, such as moving Chinese equipment factories to Brazil.


China's mission to secure commodities does not stop with Brazil--as you are well aware if your a frequent reader at this site.

Beijing has struck similar agreements with energy producers world-wide in recent months, including a $10 billion deal with Kazakhstan and a $25 billion deal with Russian oil and pipeline companies.


Stay tuned for further developments and ChinaSouthAmerica's analysis this deal and growth of Sino-Brazilian Cooperation.


Monday, May 18, 2009

Brazil's president arrives in Beijing

[South-South Cooperation] -- China, Brazil -- Al Jazeera

Lula arrives in China - [Reuters]

Brazil's president has arrived in China for three days of talks expected to focus on broadening ties between two of the world's largest developing economies and moves to decrease their dependency on the US dollar.

The visit by Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva is his second in 12 months, highlighting the importance of China which recently overtook the US as Brazil's most important trading partner.

On Tuesday Lula will hold talks with his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, as well as host a bilateral business forum and visit an aircraft factory.

Speaking ahead of the visit he said he was looking to the trip to promote "a new economic order", while an official from the country's foreign ministry said a theme of the talks would be a "reorganisation of the international scene".


Al Jazeera's Tony Cheng reporting from Beijing says the main point of discussion during Lula's visit will be on Brazilian energy resources which Beijing, with reserve funds to spare, was keen to exploit.


Brazil's two-way trade with China, one of the few economies still growing strongly despite the global crisis, reached $3.2bn in April, surpassing the $2.8bn trade total with the US.

So far this year, government data showed that Brazilian exports to China grew 65 per cent over the same period in 2008, rising from $3.4bn to $5.6bn.

Click here to access the complete article from Al Jazeera


Indian stocks surge; Sensex advances 17% on Congress win

The bulls were right. Financial markets cheered and celebrated after Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi's Congress Party won nation wide elections.

India's Sensex index surged 17% Monday, forcing a halt trading for the first time ever after the daily limits where breached.

The Indian rupee appreciated 3% against the dollar and the benchmark bond yield fell 12 basis points, the most in weeks according to this Bloomberg article.


Here is what some of the "financial experts" had to offer Bloomberg and the Financial Times (click links to access each respective article).

“Markets are euphoric,” said Rahul Chadha, the Hong Kong- based head of Indian equities at Mirae Asset Global Investment, with $46 billion in global equities. “The focus by federal and state governments on development will lead to a structural re- rating of India.”


“The election result is extremely positive and very, very bullish,” Madhusudan Kela, head of equities at Mumbai-based Reliance Capital Asset Management, the nation’s largest money manager overseeing $18 billion of assets, said in an interview. “This will provide a government which is stable and has powers to take decisions.”


“India is potentially looking at a decade of good reforms and growth,” said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia Pacific economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. “This is a pretty big outcome.


Beijing's shady underground scene

Beijing, China—the capital of the People's Republic of China, is no place for puritans. The city's underground scene of sex, drugs and rock & roll is growing faster than Chinese GDP these days.

“China High, my fast times in the 010—A Beijing Memoir by ZZ,” is a new book detailing the adventures of a young expat lawyer who lived in Beijing during the years of China's fast economic growth since the founding of the People's Republic in 1949.

Bloomberg columnist Le-Min Lim reviewed the book on May 14 and had the following to offer.


“Written before the global credit meltdown, “China High” lifts a curtain on a side of Beijing seldom seen by tourists. ZZ captures the nocturnal buzz of a city where rave parties in derelict factories are a staple and orgies have become a rite of passage. Then there’s the pot, which locals call the Big Numb.

Beneath the froth lies a serious message: The world’s largest developing economy is seething in social tension, displaced people and hypocrisy. It’s a land of official sexual equality run by men who often keep under-30 mistresses, a.k.a. their “little honeys,” on two-year contracts. A country given to bouts of xenophobia among people who fawn on foreigners.”

ZZ offers tips on how to navigate Beijing, right down to what the worst swear words mean and how to use them to best effect. He exposes the hidden high costs of doing business in labor-rich China by describing his struggle to start a food- delivery company staffed by locals with little English and no inkling of quality service.


So you get the picture? Beijing is more than the city which hosts China's most famous historical monuments, shiny new sky scrapers and Olympic arenas. Beijing like other major metropolises in the world (ie: London, Paris and New York) has its own dark side to it.

The book also sheds light onto another, equally important facet of expatriate life in China for a foreigners working or studying in the country's major cities. The “ego trip,” anyone from the plains of Iowa to a pompous New Yorker or Londoner will experience upon moving to China.

A Chinese-Laotian-American friend of mine was sitting with me at a Mexican restaurant in Beijing one day back in 2006 when I asked him what his thoughts on why the Chinese treat foreigners so well and virtually hand us all this privileged their own citizens don't enjoy.

“Well Bennett, the Chinese were sitting on top of the world for a few thousand years and one day these random barbarians (Europeans) showed up and knocked China off its pedestal. Political and social turmoil aside, the Chinese pride was damaged so badly, they have been in a never ending state trying to catch up and keep peace at the same time. That is why, at least until China does catch up, foreigners will be welcomed with open arms.”

At the moment, living as a foreigner in Beijing and other big cities like Shanghai has its downsides as all places do. This usually comes in the form of having to deal with bureaucracy, regulations you did not know existed or other headaches that are typical of life in a developing country.

On the other end of the spectrum exist some great perks you can not find just anywhere. The common foreigner will suddenly feel as if they have taken the express elevator up the social latter of life. ZZ explains: 

“What does work wonders is being a foreigner, he says, rightly observing how the Chinese, long cut off from the world, now revere all things from abroad. An expatriate, he says, draws praise, envy and opportunity just for being different. “

It’s “the perfect recipe for an ego trip,” he writes.


To purchase your own copy and read more detailed reviews please visit Amazon or Barnes and Noble.


Sunday, May 17, 2009

Latino Ex-pat workers hit in Japan

[Reuters] -- May 15 - Latino workers in Japan have been offered money by the Japanese government to leave after losing jobs.


Weekend Newswire: South-South Cooperation

[Brazil - Saudi Arabia] -- Saudi Arabia and Brazil are natural allies

By Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva

This week I will have the honor to be the first Brazilian President to officially travel to Saudi Arabia. I retain fond memories of the visit in 2000 of the then Crown Prince to Brazil. Since then, numerous high level visits have further strengthened the ties between our two countries and peoples.

Brazil prides itself on having roots in the rich cultural heritage of Arab civilization. Successive waves of immigrants from the Middle East have made their way to Brazil in search of a new horizons and a better life. Over the years they have contributed to forging present-day Brazil and to its diverse human landscape. Arab values, tastes and sensibilities are today an integral part of what it means to be Brazilian.

My trip to Saudi Arabia aims to explore and enhance these many-faceted affinities and the opportunities for cooperation that they offer. Much has been achieved over recent years, but much remains to be done if we are to fully realize the potential of two thriving economies that are making their mark on the global scene.

[China - Bahrain] -- Bahrain reviews construction ties with China
Co-operation between Bahrain and China in the construction sector was discussed at a key meeting.

Minster of State for Foreign Affairs and Tamkeen chairman Dr Nazar Al Baharna met a Chinese business delegation and discussed various issues of mutual interest.

Development of programmes that can reduce the dependency of construction companies on unskilled labour by introducing machinery and technological solutions was also highlighted.

[India - Kenya] -- Kenya, India to beef up ties in small industry sector
In yet another indication of India's growing interest in the East African region, the country's National Small Industries Corp (NSIC) has signed an agreement with Kenya Industrial Estates (KIE) to strengthen cooperation in the small scale industry sector.

KIE is a state-run agency of Kenya to promote indigenous entrepreneurship and small and medium enterprises (SME).

According to media reports here, the partnership involves technology transfer, and marks a major step towards improving Kenya's quality standards in manufacturing, production and human resources.

"The government is keen to forge a viable partnership with friendly countries, particularly in the spirit of south-south cooperation," Kenyan Industrialisation Minister Henry Kosgey was quoted as saying.

[Asia - Africa] -- Asian Foreign Direct Investment in Africa
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa by developing Asian economies is growing and has the potential to reach much higher levels. The present report notes that Africa-bound FDI is still a small percentage of the rapidly climbing foreign investments being made by Asian transnational corporations.

The rapid economic growth in Asia can be expected to lead to increased Asian investments in Africa, in both natural resources and manufacturing. In particular, the rapid industrial upgrading taking place in Asia provides ample opportunities for Africa to attract efficiency-seeking and export-oriented FDI from Asian economies.


Weekend Newswire: Commodities

[Crude Oil] -- Oil Falls on Speculation Recovery Will Falter, Reducing Global Fuel Demand
Crude oil fell the most in almost a month on concern the global economic recovery may falter, reducing demand for fuel.

[Natural Gas] -- Nymex Gas Falls as Reports Show Industrial Demand Will Be Slow to Recover
Natural gas futures fell for a third day as reports showed that demand for the fuel from factories and power plants will be slow to recover during the recession.

[Copper] -- Copper's U-Shaped Base Signals Rise, StanChart Says: Technical Analysis
Copper may rise to levels not seen since October in the month ahead, as the metal forms a U-shaped base, Standard Chartered Bank said, citing trading patterns.

[Gold & Silver] -- Gold Advances in N.Y. on Speculation Equity Rally May Stall; Silver Gains
Gold prices rose, extending a rally to two weeks, as investment demand increased on rising consumer prices and signs that a rally in U.S. equities may be ending. Silver futures fell.

[Platinum & Palladium] -- Platinum Falls as Dim Auto Outlook Cuts Demand in N.Y.; Palladium Gains
Platinum prices fell as the U.S. auto- industry slump eroded demand for the metal used in pollution- control parts. Palladium rose for the first time this week.

[Steel] -- China Steel Industry Likely to Post Loss in 2009, Baosteel Chairman Says
China’s steel industry may post a loss this year, Baosteel Group Corp. Chairman Xu Lejiang said at a conference in Shanghai today. Xu said the Chinese steel industry is oversupplied and faces severe structural problems that have been worsened by the financial crisis.

[Soybeans] -- Soybeans Head for Third Weekly Gain as Demand Cuts U.S. Supply
Soybeans climbed, heading for a third weekly gain, on speculation that increased global demand may further reduce inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter of the crop.

[Investments] -- Where Commodities Fit In Your Portfolio
Commodities are a great way to diversify your portfolio, but if you are considering allocating some money to the group, don’t expect to catch a draft in the near future, even if there are signs the worst of the global slowdown may be over.


India - Election results from the world's largest democracy

Newswire: India's Election Results

It is a beautiful process when a democratic country experiences a peaceful transition of leadership.

India's voters have spoken. On one side, celebrations swept India as supporters of the Congress Party celebrated their victory.

On the other, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, conceded defeat.

"The party accepts the verdict of the voters will full respect."

The Congress Party won as many as 260 seats. This puts Congress just short of a independent majority, but close enough to be able to form a stable coalition.

Good news for financial markets, which will welcome a stronger government with more capacity to push through market reforms. Expect Bombay's stock exchange to rally on Monday.