Copper, Oil Lead Decline as Global Growth Slows reports Bloomberg LP

Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and crude oil led a decline in commodities on concern that slower global economic growth will curb demand for raw materials.

Copper headed for its biggest weekly drop since March, crude oil fell to the lowest compared with closing prices since May and silver reached its cheapest since January. Italy's second-quarter gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank, the statistics office in Rome said today. Japan's economy probably contracted in the three months ended June, according to the median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

``People understand that we might face a difficult two or three quarters ahead of us,'' said Christoph Eibl, who helps manage more than $1 billion of commodities at Tiberius Asset Management AG in Zug, Switzerland. ``Industrial-related commodities will not outperform.''

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Click here to access the full story from Bloomberg LP

Chinese stocks drop most in 6 weeks ahead of Opening Ceremony of Olympic Games

Zhang Shidong and Dingmin Zhang of Bloomberg LP report Chinese stocks have plunged ahead of the Olympic Games due to what analysts and investors say was a failure on the part of the Chinese Government to announce "market stablalizing" measures ahead of the games.

A great deal can change in China in just a months time. Considering the last time I visited was back in Sept-Dec of 2006, I'm sure a great deal has evolved. One thing, no matter the time difference in which people visited China or more particularly Beijing that seemed to remain with time was hope that the games would boost Chinese equities.




This has been a good lesson to avoid heading into markets with the "herd" or in laymen terms... the masses.

Beijing definetly has a boom town feel, but so do other cities in China. Other places, such as Shaang Xi province, a coal producing region do not (or did not back in 2006). Chinese people from Southern Economic Zones created in the late 90's and other regions which have grown rapidly over the past decade expressed concern the country was spending too much on the games to me.

One young man of 20 years from Guang Zhou, a Cantonese speaking region ajacent to Hong Kong told me "Beijing has the boom but is only able to back it up becuase of the government. Places like Shanghai and Shenzhen are boom towns but can back the talk and boom."

He may be right, as Olympic spectators are dazzled in the capital, they are seeing quite a show... trust me it will be a show when the games opening ceremony comes on TV at 8am (Eastern Standard Time).

The boom feeling in China is real, but not substantial enough to defy slumping global equities. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has grown 7 fold in the past 2-3 years. With the global credit crises, there is no mystery as to why China and other boom markets like Vietnam and India are plunging.

This will be a good lesson to the thousands of investors picking stocks based off lucky numbers and the belief that their investments can only grow. US investors are still learning this despite being from a country with long established financial markets.

When I was born in the mid 80's, Stock Exchanges did not even exist in China. Now that they do, both independent and institutional investors in China must learn to ride the bad times. Learn how ot depend on an income flow from investments. Learn how to not hit or yell sell when things drop. Learn how to properly evaluate equities, instead of using lucky numbers of other ways to pick stocks.

The list goes on... in Chinese Bear Markets 101.

Disappear for 12 days and things go a bit crazy... falling Metals drag down LATAM financials --

Latin American stock markets plunged Monday, led by a slide in Brazilian and Mexican equities as prices for resources sparked a broad sell-off and growing fears about the performance of the US economy. Brazil and Mexico markets fell to their lowest level in seven and six months, while in Argentina the Merval ended at a two year record low.

In Sao Paulo, the Bovespa dropped 3.5% to 55,609.07, its third consecutive decline. Shares of the market's heaviest-weighted stock, oil giant Petrobras tumbled 4.7%. Something similar happened with Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s leading iron ore mining giant which slid 7.2%.

Click here to access the full article from Merco Press

More comprehensive updates and analysis of past weeks events and where things may be heading to come. Need to play catch up with the world after 12 days in Brazil, with limited net, tv and media I could read (my Portuguese is not the greatest)

Council on Hemispheric Affairs -- China in L America- a partner, not a threat (so far)

Apologies on the lack of updates and coverage as of recent. I've been in transit from NYC --> Belo Horizonte and was stuck a few days without net or rather without easy access to the net in San Paulo.


Will be publishing from Belo Horizonte for the next few days.


China's Claim in Latin America: So Far, a Partner not a Threat Monday, 28 July 2008, 4:57 am
Opinion: Council on Hemispheric Affairs by Jamie Heine By light years, Washington traditionally has held the upper hand when it comes to foreign influence on Latin America. Its hemispheric power-advantage rests on decades of security, trade, investment, and ideological connections. However, the era of globalization is now tearing down many of the world's hemispheric divides.

Latin America is rapidly diversifying its international relations as major regional powerhouses, such as China, increase their presence in the region. Many view China's growing influence in the western hemisphere as a challenge to the U.S.'s historic regional supremacy. However, the struggle for power and influence need not automatically reflect a winner-take-all competition, as both outside megaliths can benefit from China's presence in Latin America. China's Economic Expansion China's phenomenal economic growth in the past quarter century has helped motivate Beijing to globalize its industries.

From 1990-1998, China's average annual economic growth rate was 11.2 percent, compared to the world's average rate of 2.4 percent during the same time frame (China's Average Economic Growth Rate in the 90s Ranked 1st in the World 2000) and the country's growth rate is projected to remain above 8.5 percent for the next five years (Erikson 2008). Beijing's economic ties to Latin America have witnessed comparable growth: from 1993 to 2003, China's trade with Latin America increased by 600 percent (Xinhua News Agency 2004).

Chinese president Hu Jintao set the mark for increasing trade with Latin America to $100 billion by 2010, a goal easily met when trade surged to $102.6 billion in 2007, which represents a 42.6 percent increase from 2006 (Erikson 2008).

Click here to access the remainder of this analysis prepared by COHA Research Associate Jamie Heine

India, China continue to push for more nuclear facilities to ease energy shortages -- prices set to rise says analyst Yuriy Humber

Moscow: The uranium industry’s worst year is about to collide with a nuclear construction programe in India and China that rivals the ones undertaken during the oil crisis of the 1970s.

The result is likely to be a 58% rebound in uranium to $90 (Rs3,870) a pound from $57 now, according to Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty. Ltd and the Rio Tinto group, the third biggest mining company. Uranium plunged 57% in the past year as an earthquake damaged a Japanese plant that is the world’s largest and faults shut down reactors in the UK and Germany.

Plans for India and China to end electricity shortages will ripple from Canada to the Australian outback and the flatlands of Kazakhstan, the primary sources of uranium. India will start three reactors this year, with another six due next year in India, China, Russia, Canada and Japan. Uranium demand worldwide will rise as fast as oil this year, or 0.8%, Deutsche Bank AG forecasts.

Scarce commodity: The Hamaoka nuclear power station in Japan. Uranium plunged 57% in the past year
as an earthquake damaged another plant in Japan and faults shut down reactors in the UK and Germany.
(Photo: Robert Gilhooly/Bloomberg)

“The first wave of growth is going to come from the emerging economies,” said John Wong, fund manager with CQS UK Llp. in London, which has $10 billion under management including $150 million of uranium investments. “People are starting to look at coal, gas, oil and seeing the energy prices go up, they wonder about uranium.”

Click here to access the full article from Livemint News.


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