Jim Rogers: "We are going to have serious food shortages in a few years"

Jim Rogers sits down with Bloomberg host Haslinda Amin in his home base of Singapore. Haslinda gets a full twenty minutes to test his patience while she asks what his opinions are on investing in a variety of investment categories. Commodities. Currencies. North American Natural Gas. Yen Carry Trade. Agriculture. Equities. ETF's.

As usual, Jim Rogers is sticking to what he knows best-raw materials. If you're a new reader, or have not heard of Jim Rogers definitely run a search on the right of his name to bring up past posts and videos including him.


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Newswire: Commodities

[Crude Oil] -- Oil Falls in New York on Speculation Increased Supplies Will Limit Gains
Crude oil fell on speculation that last week’s 10 percent advance will be undone as U.S. inventories climb and fuel consumption declines.

Oil followed equity markets lower today, reversing gains made last week after the U.S. economy lost fewer jobs than expected. Crude inventories rose to the highest since 1990 in the week ended May 1 as fuel consumption tumbled, an Energy Department report showed last week.


[Natural Gas] -- Natural Gas Declines on Speculation 22% Advance Was Excessive
Futures fell for the first time in four days on speculation last week’s 22 percent rally was unjustified.


[Copper] -- Copper Futures Decline for Third Straight Session as China's Demand Eases
Copper prices fell for the third straight session in New York on signs that demand may ease in China, the world’s biggest user of industrial metals.


[Precious Metals] -- Gold, Silver Fall in N.Y. as Investment Demand Slips on Signs of Recovery
Gold and silver prices dropped in New York on speculation that investment demand will decline as more signs emerge that the global recession may have touched bottom.

Newswire: Commodities

[Energy] -- Crude Oil Falls on Speculation U.S. Supplies Climbed Last Week

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell from a five-month high on speculation a government report will show that U.S. supplies climbed to the highest level in more than 18 years.

The Energy Department tomorrow will probably say that crude-oil inventories increased 2.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Prices surged yesterday as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 3.4 percent and pending sales of existing U.S. homes jumped.



[Base Metals] -- Copper Tumbles From Two-Week High on Renewed Growth Concerns

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell from the highest price in two weeks on concern that government stress tests may show some of the largest U.S. banks need more capital and that financial losses will continue to curb growth.

The tests may show that about 10 banks need additional capital to weather a deeper recession, people familiar with the matter said. The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the results of the tests to executives today. Copper surged 12 percent in the previous four sessions on speculation that the global contraction may be bottoming.



[Precious Metals] -- Gold Climbs to One-Week High as Dollar Declines; Platinum Gains

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a one-week high in New York and London as the dollar declined against the currencies of major trading partners. Platinum and silver also climbed.

Gold jumped 1.8 percent yesterday as the dollar fell to a four-week low against the euro. Some investors have bought gold betting on “negative data” about U.S. banks in a report from the Federal Reserve scheduled in two days, said Manqoba Madinane at Standard Bank Group Ltd. in Johannesburg. The dollar index has slid 0.9 percent this week.



[Agriculture] -- Wheat Gains as Wet, Cold Weather Delays U.S. Planting Progress


May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat prices rose as wet, cold weather delayed planting and the emergence of crops in the U.S., the biggest exporter of the grain.

About 23 percent of the spring wheat was planted as of May 3, down from 55 percent at the same time last year and an average of 59 percent from 2004 to 2008, the Department of Agriculture said yesterday in a report. Planting was 3 percent completed in North Dakota, the crop’s biggest producer, down from 54 percent at this time last year, USDA data show.

China's gold reserves growing, and fast... What does it mean?

China's gold reserves have nearly doubled over the past five years, according to the country's foreign exchange administration.

At the moment China holds about 1000 tons of gold, up from 600 tons in 2003 according to Hu Xiaolian who is head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Take note, the last time China released such information was in 2003, so this is not exactly a every day occurrence.

Definitely big news, especially for the United States which at the moment is the major beneficiary of China's massive foreign exchange reserves, most of which are held in U.S Dollar denominated assets.

“China still has only a very small percentage of its forex reserves held in gold, much less than the United States or other developed countries,” said Paul Atherley, Beijing-based managing director of Leyshon Resources. “Those holdings are still too low in terms of the size of its economy and the growing significance of its currency.”

At the moment, China's total gold reserves only account for roughly 1.6% of its entire accumulated FOREX reserves. The total value of its gold holdings are currently reported as $31 billion (211.6 billion yuan).

Furthermore, according to this FT article the move coincidentally comes as many European central banks are selling their gold and as the International Monetary Funds discusses selling a considerable portion of its own gold reserves.

“This is probably the most significant central bank announcement since the Central Bank of Russia announced at the LBMA gold conference in Johannesburg in 2005 that it wanted to hold 10 per cent of its foreign exchange reserves in gold,” said John Reade of UBS.

Check out this chart of how gold has performed over the past five years.


Gold has traditionally been viewed as a store of value and a safe heaven for wealth in volatile times, and these are indeed volatile times.

China recently hinted that it would like in a perfect world that the global economy adopt a single currency. The Political Satire, the Daily Show articulately described in last nights episode, this is just not going to happen (Note the link provided takes you to a video from last nights episode that contains some questionable language).

In reality it is hard to believe China legitimately thinks the United States would consider adopting a single currency. What China was really aiming to do was send a message that the United States better make sure that it not only pays back all the money China has lent it over the years but that it also pays it back at a premium.

If inflation goes through the roof because of low interest rates and the massive amounts of money the United States is printing, China is going to be paid back in a very devalued currency, and this will make for a very unhappy China.

Recent headlines relating to China's planned gold purchases sends yet another clear message to the United States.

"Make sure you get your house in order!"

China's FOREX reserves have grown from $623 billion at the start of 2005 to a whoppin' $1.906 trillion at the end of September of 2008. Growth however did slow tremendously in the first quarter of 2009, growing a mere $7.7 billion.

With its current stock of 1000 tons of gold, China has the fifth largest holdings of gold in the world. Hou Huimin, vice general secretary of the China Gold Association suggested in his opinion China should build it reserves to 5,000 tons.

One thing is clear, China is going to be very careful where its stores it wealth in the coming years.

Chile To Invest $30 Billion in Copper, Gold Projects - MercoPress

Investment in Chilean copper and gold projects is expected to total over $30 billion.


Chile is the world’s No. 1 producer and exporter of copper and each 1-cent increase in the annual median price of copper represents an additional $40 million for the treasury of the Andean nation. The median price per pound so far this year is $1.59, compared with $3.15 a pound in 2008.

Click here to access this article in its entirety from MercroPress

Newswire: Commodities

Mid-week review of the commodity markets from Bloomberg's Commodity Section.

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Crude oil - $49.38 / barrel

Oil Rises as Government Shows Smaller U.S. Supply Gain Than API - Bloomberg Article

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first time in four days after a U.S. government report showed a smaller inventory gain than an industry report.

Supplies increased 1.65 million barrels to 361.1 million last week, the highest since July 1993, the Energy Department said today. Stockpiles were forecast to climb by 1.5 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The industry- funded American Petroleum Institute yesterday said stockpiles jumped 6.94 million barrels to the highest since 1990.

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Gold - $885.90 / ounce
Silver - $12.34 / ounce

Gold Rises on Investor Demand for Store of Value; Silver Climbs - Bloomberg Article

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose for a second straight day in New York as some investors purchased the metal to hedge against financial turmoil. Silver also gained.

The U.S. Treasury Department extended last year’s taxpayer- funded bank bailout to life insurers. Earlier, the bailout was broadened to include automakers and credit-card companies. Researcher GFMS Ltd. said yesterday that gold may reach a record this year as government spending raises inflation concerns.

“The reasons why investors bought gold -- fears of longer- term inflation and currency debasement -- remain intact,” John Reade, the head UBS AG metals strategist in London, said today in a report. Once gold prices have stabilized, “we expect bottom-fishers to begin the next cycle of investment,” he said.

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Copper - $4,400 / ton
Zinc - $1,365 / ton
Aluminum - $1,490 / ton
Lead - $1,335 / ton
Nickel - $10,925 / ton
Tin - $10,880 / ton

Copper Gains, Erasing Earlier Drop, in London as Shares Advance - Bloomberg Article

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Copper advanced on the London Metal Exchange, erasing earlier declines, as shares rose on prospects government support will help automakers and banks.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares rebounded after dropping as much as 1.7 percent today, while the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed. The Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against six counterparts, fell 0.2 percent. A weaker greenback cuts the cost of commodities priced in the dollar for holders of other currencies.

“A little bit of buying has crept through on the back of the Dow,” said James Roberts, a broker at Sucden Financial Ltd. in London. “The turnaround in prices is equity-driven.”



Mid-week review of the commodity markets from Bloomberg's Commodity Section.

Deutsche Bank sees hope in the commodity markets

The global head of Deutsche Bank's commodity unit, David Silbert, announced today the bank (Germany's largest bank by market share) will be expanding its commodity team by roughly 10% this year.

DB will be adding new assets of coal, European natural gas and shipping to its balance sheets.

DB has seen its revenue from commodities quadruple over past two years. The bank seems confident this trend can continue and that as global stimulus packages hit the market and the general global economic outlook improves, commodity demand will once again head north.

“With hope of an economic rebound, crude, base metals prices are going to be higher than now,” said Silbert.

Bloomberg does a pretty good job in this article of contrasting DB's strategy vs tha to Zurich-based UBS AG.

Marc Faber on Gold Explorers

Marc Faber on Gold Futures and a possible Bear Market Rally

Analysis and discussion with Marc Faber Editor and Publisher of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report. He is advising investors to buy gold in 2001 before it tripled, he is now advising investors to buy gold explorers. He also says that he expects a rally in stocks to start some time in the near future, and that a weakening dollar will be a good sign to look out for.