Chinese Oil Firms Bid for Repsol's Argentine unit

Chinese oil conglomerates China National Petroleum and Cnooc have offered to pay an estimated $17 billion usd for all of Repsol YPF's state in its Argentine unit called YPF.

You can read the Wall Street Journal's paraphrased article (the original costs money) at thestreet.com, by visiting this article.

Will this deal actually be completed? China South America reported on this possible deal back on July 7, 2009. You will notice, the offer at this point was only $14.5 billion for a 75% stake. China has since upped the offer and is now looking to buy the entire thing.

Why China? Are you angry over Australia rejecting your Rio bid? Are you feeling flustered that countries from the industrialized world, but also in Africa and Latin America are starting to think twice about selling the rights to their raw materials?

I don't blame them, after all, Australia is quite similar to South American commodity producing countries. Two note worthy and simple similarities include

1. A large portion of GDP is generated from commodity exports
2. The relative strength or weakness of domestic currencies such as the Ausie Dollar, Argentine Peso, Peruvian Sol and Brazilian Real, are all inherently linked to the global market price of the commodities the countries export. [ie: if the spot price for copper drops 50%, observe what happens to Peru and Chile's Peso's.
   

According to the WSJ article, the main obstacles to this deal include

• Spain is hesitant to see some of its best assets in Argentina be sold to China

• Argentina's government has no financial stake in YPF, but nonetheless under Argentine law has the right to veto decisions such as transfer of ownership. In my personal opinion, this translates into who is willing to pay more “under the table” to the Argentine government.

• China National Petroleum and Cnooc are state owned organizations. Despite their growing influence and presence in oil markets around the world, many governments still remain weary of doing business with companies officially tied to a foreign government.

Laying the foundation for a tri-nation Boliviaran mining giant in South America

[South-South Cooperation] -- Ecuador, Venezuela, Bolivia

The Ecuadorian government announced plans yesterday of the establishment of a joint mining company with the country of Venezuela and possibly Bolivia. You can read all the vague details in this article from Chinamining.

"We are going to build a great mining company in association with Venezuela and perhaps with Bolivia to exploit some veins of mine ore returned to the State from private hands,"said Ecuadorian Minister of Mines and Petroleum Derlis Palacios.

Brazil Petrobras Reports Reconcavo Oil Find to ANP

Brazilian state-run energy giant Petrobras notified regulators late Monday that it found traces of oil in a test well drilled in the Reconcavo Basin.

Dow Jones Newswire

Venezuela to pump 12% more oil as project costs rise and credit freezes

The credit crisis is hitting home in Venezuela in South America. Days after Chavez won his beloved struggle to be able to run for re-election plans have been announced by the government that Venezuela pans to boost oil output by at least 12%.

By 2013, Venezuela aims to increase its production capacity to 4.94 million barrels a day. This will require around $4.41 billion usd for drilling, $2.2 billion usd for steam injection to increase production and $6.51 billion for equipment to facilitate converting the region's tar-like oil into a low-sulfur crude oil for export.

Back in October 30, PDVSA opened the bidding for potential partners for ventures in the Orinoco oil belt. Which by the way Chavez never forgets to mention now puts Venezuela up there with Saudi Arabia and Canada in "proven petroleum deposits."



PDVSA is currently offering a 40% stake in a joint venture with the Venezuelan state oil company to develop new projects. According to Bloomberg the contracts can extend up to 40 years.

Chavez to expand Venezuela's oil pact

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is flexing the country's petroleum muscle once again, stating he seeks to expand Venezuela's oil pact to poor nations in the Caribbean.

Chavez stated "Nations taking part in Petrocaribe initiative will now be required to pay just 40% of the bill within 90 days - down from the current 50%. The rest can be paid over the next 25 years at a fixed rate of 1% percent as long as oil prices are above US$100 a barrel.

"That could compensate for the horrible curve of the jump in oil prices," Chavez said. He added that 70 percent of payments may be deferred if oil reaches US$150 a barrel.

AP Photo

In this photo released by Miraflores Press Office, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez speaks during the opening ceremony of the Petrocaribe Summit in Maracaibo, Venezuela, Sunday, July 13, 2008. President Hugo Chavez sought to expand an oil-supply pact that is delivering fuel to 17 nations, calling it a tool against poverty and dismissing opponents' accusations that he is giving away Venezuela's oil wealth.

Sounds really generous to me... Venezuela is unarguably of the wealthier Caribbean nations in the Caribbean, however it does remain a country with many economic problems. Calculating if such a long-term donation is even feasible is difficult to do. So many variables could arise in the next 25 years which could cause the cash flow from its oil accounts receivable ledger simply stop...

New government could come into power who don't honor the repayment. Alternative energy could leap frog and bring the price of oil down substantially. A new government could come into power in Venezuela and re-arrange the terms, leaving small Caribbean contries with little bargaining power against Venezuela: their provider of energy and also regional political and economic power.

No less the gesture as it stands is a nice one, and in reality there is just so much domestic investment that is possible given Venezuela's limited FDI and internal domestic capacities. Oil drills may be in shortage, but so is the industry as a whole since the PDVSA strikes. Given the set backs, PDVSA remains a relatively vibrant operation, turns a profit and even manages to give Chavez some diplomatic barganing chips by making Venezuela into a gracious, oil rich country which cares about its region and the poor of world... unlike the United States, which is a underlying point Chavez hopes to make through such efforts.

Oil and Gas in focus: PDVSA Q1 profit rises 80% to usd $3.5 billion

PDVSA 1st quarter net profit shot up 80%, to usd $3.5 billion, up from usd $ 1.92 billion in the same quarter of 2007.

Although PDVSA's actual real performance might be difficult to predict due to various news agencies and the respective bias they carry when reporting on anything Venezuelan, PDVSA hard figures suggest some hope that Chavez is re-building Venezuela's delapidated and crumbling oil sector.

I am not down on the ground in Venezuela, but from the different Venezuelan-American's i've met, most claim any news they hear from their family and friends in Venezuela is highly bais depending on the individuals political ideology (pro-Chavez or anti-Chavez).

With this in mind I will include te major figures released by PDVSA today, and reported by Business News Americas (BNAmericas). To access the full article from BNAmericas click here.

-- Net profit: rose 80% ---> usd $3.5 billion from 1.92 bilion in 1Q07
-- Total revenue: rose 52% ---> usd $31.4 billion from 20.7 billion in 1Q07
-- Ebitda: rose 85% ---> usd $ 33.3 billion from 19.7 billion in 1Q07

-- Total costs: rose 38% to usd $24.3 billion from 17.6 billion in 1Q07

-- Revenues dedicated to social spending: up a whopping 376% to usd $2.68 billion from $565 million in 1Q07
-- PDVSA total contribtion to Venezuelan state: rose 112% to usd $7.39 billion from 3.48 billion in 1Q07

-- PDVSA oil production: rose 2% to 3.21 mb/d compared with 3.11 mb/d in 1Q07
-- PDVSA natural gas production: fell by 5% to 6.41Bf3/ d (181mm3/ d) compared with 6.73Bf3/ d in 1Q07

***NOTE *** the International Energy Association estimates Venezuela's production is actually close to 2.5 mb/d. Chavez did fire large numbers of workers in the oil sector whom he felt where not supporting his "Boliviaran Revolution." He also soon came to see them as a potential threat, lush with power and money from working in the oil sector, international connections, etc. He fired them all when he took a tough position during the country wide protests which paralyzed the country for about a year. When it was over, 1000's of PDVSA and other workers from the oil the sector found their traditional economic and political power was not able to dictate terms in Venezuela, and as they continued to push they found themselves jobless. 100's of Venezuelan's left to Texas, Miami, the Middle East in search of work in the oil sector abroad.

-- PSVSA recieved an average of usd $87.89/ barrel for exported crude, up 81% from $48.65/ barrel in 1Q07

-- PDVSA exploraton activities: focused on 23 exploration projects with the principle objective of investigation and confirming new reserves.

Venezuela's PDVSA and China's CNPC to cooperate in the production of 8 new oil rigs -- annually

I am intrigued, as usual, by the fact I am only able to find a few sources in English which have covered the recent development in Sino-Venezuelan cooperation. I suppose this is one of the main reasons I started this site-- to share developments in the works between China and South America, which go largely unnoticed in the West.

As described in a recent article published by BNAmericas, Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela S.A) and China's state oil company CNPC (China National Petroleum), have entered into a joint venture in which the two government owned oil conglomerates will work together in order to produce 8 new oil rigs by years end in Venezuela.

This adds to the two oil rigs delivered by CNPC in November 2007, and three more to come in 2009, bringing the total number of "made in China" oil rigs operating in Venezuela to 13. This will also allow Venezuela's PDVSA, for the first time in the country's history to construct their own oil rigs domestically... without North American or European assistance.

Don't get too excited... This it is not major sign of political or economic unity between the two nations. At least, not on the level Venezuelan state media is reporting it to be. Want proof?

Chinese media has virtually ignored this development, as they usually do with most things concerning Venezuela. China does not want to attract the attention of the US or Europe by dealing too closely with Chavez.

The most recent article published by China's state media, Xinhua, I can find on this subject (in either Chinese or English), is dated May 13, 2008.

Granted my reading ability in Chinese is far from perfect, however searching the words "petrol," and "Venezuela" can usually lead me in the right direction and allow me to find a story pertaining to the topic I am searching for. From what I am able to comprehend in this Chinese article from May, I personally do not feel it is directly related to the deal discussed on June 23, 2008 on BNAmerica's website.

Chavez would like to consider China a strategic ally, both on a political and economic level. As the world's second largest consumer of energy, the match seems to fit... Too bad for Chavez its quite costly to ship Venezuela's heavy, dirty crude oil all the way to China.

Second, Chavez has unrealistically already raised China's economic position and importance for his country right next to the spot the US still occupies. This is hardly feasible to imagine considering Venezuela and China's geographic locations.

Third, Venezuela's trade with China is inconsequential compared with Venezuela's trade with the US.

Fourth, when you compare China's trade with other Latin American nations, Venezuela's trade is insignificant when compared with China's current trade with other nations such as Brazil, Chile or Argentina.

Last, and perhaps Hugo's biggest mistake, is thinking China would be willing to extend it self to a country which is not only in the "back yard" of the US, but also a country which currently is not on good terms with US. Chinese culture, tradition and history have shown the Chinese have a tendency to avoid potential problems that could threaten "peace" or "stability," and a more significant relationship with with Venezuela would therefore be risky.

China has no interest in antagonizing the US, which remains China's major trading partner in the global economy. For now, China's outbound investments will be focused in projects such as the one discussed above. PDVSA will retain a 85% stake in the project, leaving 15% to CNPC. Total investment is projected to be roughly $430 million usd.

Quite small, when you consider for China's new sovereign wealth fund has about $300 billion usd sitting in reserve, waiting to be invested.

**Useful hint for readers **

It is easy to translate English words into Chinese characters without a pinyin input system using this great Chinese-English online dictionary / translator (dict.cn). After you find the characters for the key words you're looking for use "ctrl + f" or "apple key + f (for mac os)," to search for them in a article. Petrol = 汽油 (qi you) , Venezuela = 委内瑞拉 (wei nei rui la).

Energy in focus: China-US talk energy cooperation, while US House of Rep pushes national renewable energy plan and Bush moves to end offshore oil ban

Two developments in the energy sector warrant attention, and two which are unfolding in parallel with one another.

I apologize for a slowdown in updates as of recent, took a bit of a mental break yesterday and was dragged into the Eurocup 2008 when I should have been working.

First, headlines from most major media have reported Chinese and US leaders are meeting in Annapolis, Maryland to discuss energy cooperation. A positive move in the right direction, as described by the attendees, it is about the time to two largest net importers of energy discuss ways to better manage energy supplies and cooperation around the world for the general good of the global economy.

Visiting Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan (front L) shakes hands with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (front R) at the opening ceremony of the 4th round of China-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue in Annapolis, Maryland, the United States of America, June 17, 2008. China and the United States on Tuesday started here their 4th round of Strategic Economic Dialogue. (Xinhua/Yao Dawei) <-- click here for full story from Xinhua Media.



There is also talk in the House of Representatives for renewing a bill which promotes the development of more sources of renewable energy. As reported by C-SPAN

"Despite federal initiatives going back to the 1970's, renewable electricity makes up less than 3% of the generation mix in the U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) chairs a Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee hearing to discuss the challenges and regional solutions to developing transmission for renewable-electricity resources."

Third, this morning good old President G. Bush made headlines saying he wants to lift the currently in place bans on offshore oil drilling. (See Reuters Article here)

In Washington, the White House press secretary, Dana Perino, said Mr. Bush would urge Congress to “pass legislation lifting the Congressional ban on safe, environmentally friendly offshore oil drilling,” adding, “The president believes Congress shouldn’t waste any more time.”

For a full report check out the article published by today's New York Times. You can view the complete article written by reporter Sheryl Stoleberg by clicking on this link.

My reaction from all these developments, is simply that every side is reacting irrationally to the fact we're paying 4+ / gallon at the pumps. Action does need to be taken, but as many steps forward in one direction, usually following the policy / plan of one side of the political spectrum (either Republican or Democrat), the other side has a tendency to denounce the other sides plans almost immediately. I am far from an expert on the US energy sector, so whether the democrats of republicans have a better plan to help the US with its energy demands, I truly do not know. However, it will definitely be better than Bush's promises that gas prices would go down after the war in Iraq... hehe

As soon as Bush made this proposal, of course Nancy Polosi immediately responded in kind, telling reporters "The president’s proposal sounds like another page from the administration’s energy policy that was literally written by the oil industry: give away more public resources to the very same oil companies that are sitting on 68 million acres of federal lands they’ve already leased.”

Macro-economic frenzy... expecations, natural disasters, inflation, union strikes? what more?

Couple headlines that have grabbed my attention in recent days.


1) Unions strikes

Unions representing truck drivers are striking across the globe from Spain to England to South Korea, in protest of rising fuel prices, eroded purchasing power of their salaries, and feeling generally marginalized in society.
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7011212516
http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200806/200806100014.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a_EyvKsmJHSM&refer=uk

Peru-- LATAM fastest growing economy in 2007, just recently became the #1 global producer of silver, stands as the #2 producer of copper next to its neighbor Chile, and is the #6 producer of gold in the world. Peru in other is booming thanks to demand for copper, fish meal, and other commodities from Asia, and, second from countries and investors seeking to use metals like gold as a hedge vs inflation. This morning Peru's unhappy workers, currently in protest, due to the government failing to pass a resolution which puts ceilings on the level of profit sharing allowed. 28,000 miners from Peru's biggest mining union have postponed their strike in various mines until June 30-- many silver, copper, zing and gold (Dow newswire, accessed via Resource Investor).
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=43447

2) Asia plummets
A string of disasters in what susposed to be a continued boom year for the Chinese economy have crippled and done a great deal of damage to the new emerging super power of the world. First with the worst snow storms in 60 years which hit Southern China earlier this year-- where most of the countries economic activity is conducted, then with the anti-china/pro-tibet protests which hit the world stage during their Olympic torch rally, and last--the recent horrendous earth quake that hit Sichuan province. China's exchanges where down almost 5% yesterday at night one point, however it did not lead to the crash of Feb/March 2007, when Chinese market corrections led the way in a short global correction in stock markets. It seems the financial systems of the world has priced in the downside of this years problems in China and general difficulties which will face Asia in the wake of rising food and energy costs.

3) All over the world countries are concerned about inflation. Worse, speculation on metals and other commodities isn't helping the $, still the most circulated currency on earth rally, which would ultimately be helpful to the global economy as a whole. Its scary to see fed officials from the US and even the EU coming out and making comments on inflation. What action will they take? What ramifications will it have?
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/bernankes-inflation-comments-push-futures-lower/
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/10/markets/stockswatch/?postversion=2008061008
http://glickreport.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/06/10/intervene-already/

What to make of all of this? Well i'm going with the plan of finding a few equities I feel are not still over-valued and are in a good position to retain market position and keep earnings expectations due to their unique business and or market niche. Follow emerging markets and where they head-- as the olympics get underway I'm still confident Asia will have a rally, but if the general health of financial systems of the globe don't improve before then it will be a short lived rally. Follow the price of energy and forecasting the future of emerging markets and the general global macroeconomic health of the world economy will be easier to follow. Inflation in food stuffs is also key... Rising oil and energy prices may hurt everyone-- especially the poor, but when even food is sky rockets in price, the people of the emerging world will feel it extra hard, potentially leading to further slow downs and social instability in countries.