Exploring and keeping readers up to date with the growing economic and political ties between China and South America. Including all the good stuff: Commodities, Energy, International Finance, South-South Cooperation, Microfinance and more
According to this Bloomberg article, Abu Yahya al-Libi, the alleged successor to Osama Bin Laden has declared a holy war against the Chinese state for its repression of its Uighur.
Abu Yahya al-Libi has been quoted saying:
"The state of atheism is heading to its fall.”
"China will suffer the same fate as the “Russian bear.”
How China is going to deal with this new threat remains to be seen. Also, how Abu Yahya al-Libi plans to wage this holy war is far from clear. Foreign policy buffs describe some obvious concerns such as the growth of the Xinjiang-based East Turkistan Islamic Movement, which is based in the Taliban-rules areas of Pakistan.
This declaration of sorts comes on the heels of The July riots in the capital of Xinjiang which were the deadliest in China in decades. Bloomberg writes, "Al-Libi’s speech, entitled 'East Turkistan, the Forgotten Wound,' echoed complaints of the Uighurs that decades of government-sponsored migration to the province is making them a minority in their homeland."
Personally, this blogger feels a threat such as a Pakistan based, anti-Chinese (Han) movement is not a major problem in the short-term, but it will no less force China to become more involved over the future of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
All eyes will be watching next week when members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization meet in Shanghai to discuss regional issues. This group includes China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Xinjiang, or East Turkistan, as many in the Muslim world refer to it lies at the heart of this grouping of Central Asian countries.
Click here to access Bloomberg's article on this topic
Two articles grabbed my attention from Chinamining.org this morning. They both relate to the fact China's ethnic regions also happen to be home to a great proportion of the countries commodity and energy wealth.
You can click on the titles of each respective article to access the stories in full from Chinamining.org.
--> Tibet has copper ore reserves of 30 mln t, half of China's total Southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region has geological copper ore reserves of more than 30 million tons, accounting for over a half of the country's total, according to the region's geological prospecting bureau.
The bureau director said that Tibet is the largest region in China by its copper resources reserves. By 2008, 329 copper ore deposits had been found in the region, including 11 large deposits and six mid-size ones. Its Qulong copper ore mine, the largest one in Asia, is estimated to possess copper reserves of more than 10 million tons.
Tibet - Potala Palace [Photo I personally took during a trip I made to the region in December 2006, Bennett A. Reiss]
--> 1st Kunming Mining & Cooperation Forum (Sept 2-4, 2009) Entering the 21st century, the global mining industry is writing a new chapter. It is an era of resource economy. Mining market becomes more open and capitalized. Mineral exploring as well as financing becomes more diversified.
Yunnan is rich in natural resources, known as "the Kingdom of non-ferrous metals". More than 150 kinds of minerals have been proved there, accounting for 92.6% of Chinese total. Among the proved 92 minerals, 9 of them have the largest reserves in China and 21 of them are listed within top three. Mining as one of the five pillar industries in Yunnan plays an important role in the development of the local economy.
Earlier this summer another ethnic region grabbed world headlines. Does the region of Xinjiang ring any bells? Xinjiang is home to a large number of China's ethnic Muslims, is culturally quite similar to other republics in central Asia and is often referred to as East Turkestan. Xinjiang is also on track to become China's most important oil and gas producing region.
This article, "Xinjiang's oil and gas equivalent ranks first in China" is from little over a year ago (July 2008), asserts that Xinjiang has already passed Daqing (China's other oil producing region) as the number region in oil and gas output.
As one hand seizes development, the other taps into the potential to allow Xinjiang's oil output to soar. The latest statistics show that Xinjiang's annual oil and gas equivalent output has already exceeded that in Daqing and ranks the first in the country.
The third national resources evaluation shows that: Xinjiang's total oil and natural gas resource reserves exceeded 30 billion tons. Although it is rich in resources, Xinjiang still requires development and a reduction in consumption. Recently, Xinjiang has been producing 75,000 tons of crude oil daily, occupying 14.4 percent of the country's daily crude oil output. In 2007, Xinjiang's oil and gas equivalent reached 44.94 million tons, and ranked at the top. In all likelihood, the development of commodity sectors in these regions will be controlled by Beijing...not locals. What industries can these regions develop as to diversify their economic development from commodity sector led growth?
Yunnan and Tibet have great potential for becoming tourist meccas in China. Yunnan, the less politically sensitive of the two, has already emerged as one of China's most popular tourist destinations.
Furthermore, Yunnan's strategic location in SE Asia put it in a good place to be at the center of the future growth of trade and exchange between China and the countries of Vietnam, Myanmar and Laos.
[Map courtesy of leafgovso.co.uk]
Tibetan tourism is growing as well, but remains inhibited by the sporadic changing of restrictions and the need to acquire a special internal visa or permission to visit.
When analyzing this situation from a the perspective of the people in the Chinese government determining domestic policy, China can not and will not simply let three of its most resource rich regions control the development their natural resource industries.
Sad as it may be for some members of the minority groups in these regions, one thing is sure--Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan are all going to remain integral pieces of China for a long time and be subject to increased inflows of ethnic Han Chinese seeking economic opportunities.
Let me clearly state, the opinions expressed in this analysis not reflect how I the author, (Bennett A. Reiss) feel on a personal level. Allow me to try to put things into perspective with two analogies which I feel help explain the Chinese point of view.
Canada is full of resources from top to bottom. I am by no means an expert, but I highly doubt the Eskimo and Native American populations have much say about development of Canadian mining and energy companies in their ancestral territories.
Likewise, a more mainstream analogy might be the US in Iraq. To the "logic" driven Chinese bureaucrat, China is far more justified in their domestic policy towards these resource rich regions than the United States is in Iraq. On the surface the US is subjugating a foreign population in a country half way across the globe from its own territory. China in its own official opinion is not subjecting anyone, and to further add to the Chinese argument, these regions have been a part of China for centuries if not thousands of years.
Even if your feelings on the war in Iraq produce other rationalizations for the US invasion (outside of oil), try to justify this to a country with over 1.4 billion people to feed and improve the lives of.
I welcome debate in this area to any readers who would like to discuss this topic further.
Somebody once told me "poor people never get a break." The people of Southern China have had a tough year so far in 2008. Snow storms, global slow down, and now further flooding to add to the mess and economic losses of many of China most influential provinces in terms of economic activity and growth.
It won't stop China and even many of these provinces from achieving healthy growth rates in the 3rd quarter of 2008, and when compared to growth in other countries it will be substantially higher than developed and most developing countries this quarter. No less, one must still feel bad for the continued struggles of the peoples in Southern China.
The country's resolve as a whole is being tested, China is desperately trying to both show the world it's own domestic capacities are capable of dealing with their recent natural disasters and at the same time still convey the message they are poor and developing country which humbly will accept all international aid and allow freedom of the press. Still it will be interesting to examine the impact of these recent natural disasters a few months from now... What would and could have been if China had not encountered these problems... Not to mention continued issues stemming from the olympics and Tibet protests.
The videos below, provided (once again) by the good people of Reuters first describes the escalating flooding in Southern China, explaining "the rescuers, have now become the rescued."
The second video, can be interpreted many ways. Australia's Olympic Committee has banned their ladies hockey team from attending the opening ceremony officially because of "logistical issues that would disrupt training schedules." However, many assert pollution in Beijing is a major factor that lead to this decision by the Australian Olympic Committee. In general, it's another set back for China and the countries struggle to shed the image of Beijing's pollution problems before the games get underway in August.
Third, the Olympic torch may no longer be traveling the globe, but it is moving around mainland China... and today, XinJiang province which included about 800,000 Muslim Chinese which seek independence from China and trace their ancestral roots, interestingly enough back to the geographic area now known as Turkey. China has made it a point to include many ethnic minorities as torch carriers, but as the video shows security is being tighten in XinJiang and problems loom as the torch will soon move onto Tibet in its journey throughout China.
So many problems, as China continues its journey towards emerging as a global center of economic activity. All nations must face challenges in their own respective evolutions into modern states, with modern and respected institutions, however it is especially difficult when you are the most populous country in the world. So many factors have the potential to impede China's growth and lead to social instability--yet many should consider what is going on behind the scenes...
I predicted back in 2006 when I was in China, the central government would allow the Yuan (Renminbi) to appreciate substantially before the Olympics in order to benefit from the influx of foreigners who will be exchanging dollars, euros, pounds, and yen among the major world currencies for Chinese Renminbi. This is exactly what has happen as my earlier entry where I posted a recent article on the appreciation of the Yuan from Bloomberg.com. However, even though and big names like Henry Paulson, US Secretary of Treasury, feels it won their long standing battle to get the Chinese to allow the Yuan to appreciate. Beijing may not have been able to plan for this years natural disasters, but they definitely have maneuvered their economy in preparation for the Olympics.
If China can make it through the "free Tibet" fever recently ignited, get the torch to pass through the rest of China with little problems, successfully host a well remembered Olympic games I think it will emerge with a healthy economy and in a good position for healthy growth in late 2008 and 2009. So many variables are at play right now, time will tell as I say quite frequently, but this topic will continued to be monitored by this website, I welcome other opinions.
I have not been in China for about two years now and the country is changing so fast I'm sure opinions of many on the ground in China have changed since 2006. I must state these are my opinions and I always welcome differing ones from people interested in debate. At the end of the day, my own views and perspectives can change as well and are re-solidified or at least re-examined in the process of debate. Please by all means, let me know what you think.
