Flooding continues across Southern China-- Guangdong Province warns of "Black June", and more Olympic related problems develop

Somebody once told me "poor people never get a break." The people of Southern China have had a tough year so far in 2008. Snow storms, global slow down, and now further flooding to add to the mess and economic losses of many of China most influential provinces in terms of economic activity and growth.

It won't stop China and even many of these provinces from achieving healthy growth rates in the 3rd quarter of 2008, and when compared to growth in other countries it will be substantially higher than developed and most developing countries this quarter. No less, one must still feel bad for the continued struggles of the peoples in Southern China.

The country's resolve as a whole is being tested, China is desperately trying to both show the world it's own domestic capacities are capable of dealing with their recent natural disasters and at the same time still convey the message they are poor and developing country which humbly will accept all international aid and allow freedom of the press. Still it will be interesting to examine the impact of these recent natural disasters a few months from now... What would and could have been if China had not encountered these problems... Not to mention continued issues stemming from the olympics and Tibet protests.

The videos below, provided (once again) by the good people of Reuters first describes the escalating flooding in Southern China, explaining "the rescuers, have now become the rescued."

The second video, can be interpreted many ways. Australia's Olympic Committee has banned their ladies hockey team from attending the opening ceremony officially because of "logistical issues that would disrupt training schedules." However, many assert pollution in Beijing is a major factor that lead to this decision by the Australian Olympic Committee. In general, it's another set back for China and the countries struggle to shed the image of Beijing's pollution problems before the games get underway in August.

Third, the Olympic torch may no longer be traveling the globe, but it is moving around mainland China... and today, XinJiang province which included about 800,000 Muslim Chinese which seek independence from China and trace their ancestral roots, interestingly enough back to the geographic area now known as Turkey. China has made it a point to include many ethnic minorities as torch carriers, but as the video shows security is being tighten in XinJiang and problems loom as the torch will soon move onto Tibet in its journey throughout China.



So many problems, as China continues its journey towards emerging as a global center of economic activity. All nations must face challenges in their own respective evolutions into modern states, with modern and respected institutions, however it is especially difficult when you are the most populous country in the world. So many factors have the potential to impede China's growth and lead to social instability--yet many should consider what is going on behind the scenes...

I predicted back in 2006 when I was in China, the central government would allow the Yuan (Renminbi) to appreciate substantially before the Olympics in order to benefit from the influx of foreigners who will be exchanging dollars, euros, pounds, and yen among the major world currencies for Chinese Renminbi. This is exactly what has happen as my earlier entry where I posted a recent article on the appreciation of the Yuan from Bloomberg.com. However, even though and big names like Henry Paulson, US Secretary of Treasury, feels it won their long standing battle to get the Chinese to allow the Yuan to appreciate. Beijing may not have been able to plan for this years natural disasters, but they definitely have maneuvered their economy in preparation for the Olympics.

If China can make it through the "free Tibet" fever recently ignited, get the torch to pass through the rest of China with little problems, successfully host a well remembered Olympic games I think it will emerge with a healthy economy and in a good position for healthy growth in late 2008 and 2009. So many variables are at play right now, time will tell as I say quite frequently, but this topic will continued to be monitored by this website, I welcome other opinions.

I have not been in China for about two years now and the country is changing so fast I'm sure opinions of many on the ground in China have changed since 2006. I must state these are my opinions and I always welcome differing ones from people interested in debate. At the end of the day, my own views and perspectives can change as well and are re-solidified or at least re-examined in the process of debate. Please by all means, let me know what you think.