Showing posts with label CSI 300. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CSI 300. Show all posts

Monday, November 3, 2008

News Line: BRIC Countries, US-Peru ties to grow stronger says presidential hopeful Barack Obama (special thanks to Bloomberg LP for this post)

1)  India and China step up protection from global crisis -- courtesy of Bloomberg LP

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- India and China are accelerating efforts to prop up growth as a global slump threatens the world's fastest-expanding major economies.

The Reserve Bank of India on Nov. 1 lowered its benchmark interest rate for the second time in two weeks, and for the first time in 11 years reduced the amount of money lenders are required to keep in government bonds. China's central bank removed temporary controls over loans to maintain ``relatively fast'' growth, Xinhua News Agency reported Nov. 1, three days after cutting its key rate for the third time in two months.

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Emerging Asian economies that account for one-fifth of world growth are being dragged down as their main markets in the U.S. and Europe contract, increasing the likelihood of a global recession. Policy makers in India and China are also boosting spending to prevent their economies from going under.

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China's Premier Wen Jiabao says sustaining economic growth is the government's ``first priority.'' China has already raised export incentives, cut costs for home buyers and pledged infrastructure spending.

India and China need to move fast to implement their stimulus plans, with growth already slowing in Asia's second- and third-largest economies amid weaker foreign demand.

Click here to read the full article from Bloomberg LP


2)  China's stocks drop to a two-year low -- courtesy of Bloomberg LP

China's stocks fell to the lowest in almost two years, led by industrial companies, after a report showed China's manufacturing contracted amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

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The CSI 300 The CSI 300 has slumped 69 percent this year, making it Asia's worst-performing benchmark index. Stocks have fallen amid concern demand for Chinese products will decline as the global credit crisis drags the world's largest economies into recession.

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Net income at the 487 companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's main board rose 3.4 percent in the first three quarters, a fraction of the 89 percent increase a year earlier, according to data in a statement released by the bourse today.

Economy Slows

China's economy grew at the slowest pace in five years in the three months through September as export orders shrank and industrial production waned. The expansion cooled for a fifth straight quarter, to a 9 percent gain from a year earlier.

Click here to read the full article courtesy of Bloomberg LP


3)  Subbarao Abandons India 'Inflation Vigil,' Cuts Rates -- courtesy of Bloomberg LP
 
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Indian Central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao has abandoned the "inflation vigil'' he outlined just 10 days ago in his inaugural monetary policy statement.

For the first time since 1997, the Reserve Bank of India on Nov. 1 deployed all three of its main tools to shore up growth after inter-bank lending rates climbed to 21 percent. Economists at Yes Bank Ltd. and Standard Chartered Bank predict more interest-rate cuts following the weekend reduction.

``India's central bank has no other option but to focus on economic expansion," said Shubhada M. Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. ``Global cues have turned against growth and it was surprising to see the hawkish tones on inflation'' last month.

Subbarao, less than two months into the job, has grappled with monetary policy at a time when inflation is double the central bank's target and a global downturn threatens to hit the economy. The central bank's renewed focus on growth aligns with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's push to buoy the economy ahead of elections due by May.

The decision to cut rates on Nov. 1 was a U-turn from the stance Subbarao spelled out in his first statement. At that time, he said price pressures could come from lower farm production, volatile oil prices and a weaker rupee.

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Click here to read the rest of the article courtesy of Bloomberg LP


4) BRIC see no relief even as rally lures stock bulls -- courtesy of Bloomberg LP

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Forget last week's record 20 percent gain in emerging-market stocks. Hard times are ahead for equities in Brazil, Russia, India and China, some of the world's biggest money managers say.

Even with developing-nation shares trading at their cheapest levels in a decade, financial crises in Hungary and Pakistan that required international rescue packages and concern that economies from Turkey to Argentina are also teetering prompted investors to pull out of emerging-market funds at a record pace.

RBC Capital Markets cut its estimates on Oct. 23 for 2009 economic growth in Brazil to 2.5 percent from 4 percent and Russia to 4 percent from 6 percent. That may undermine analysts' forecasts for a 14.5 percent increase in earnings at a time when the global credit crunch seized up lending from Sao Paulo to Seoul and a slump in 24 of 25 developing-nation currencies last month inflated the costs of repaying dollar-denominated debt.

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Click here to read the full article courtesy of Bloomberg LP

5)  Brazil central bank to signal interest rate outlook: week ahead -- courtesy of Bloomberg LP


Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's central bank may provide signals on the outlook for interest rates after halting six months of increases to weigh an economic slowdown against inflationary pressure from a weakening currency.

Economists will be closely reading the minutes from the bank's Oct. 28-29 meeting, to be published Nov. 6, to gauge whether its unanimous decision to pause rate increases herald a change in policy.

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Click here to read the full article courtesy of Bloomberg LP


6) After Colorado rally Obama says U.S. - Peru ties to grow stronger -- courtesy of Living  in Peru

RPP Noticias, a local news agency in Peru had the chance to speak with Barack Obama after his final campaign stop in Colorado on Saturday November 1.

After a festive meeting with thousands of jubilant supporters dancing in the streets, Obama affirmed to RPP reporters that the relationship between the United States and Peru would grow closer and stronger.

RPP correspondents explained Obama made these statements as he was leaving his rally, which was compared by Peru reporters to the presentation of a famous show-business star.

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Click here to read the full article courtesy of Living in Peru and RPP Noticias

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Chinese Economy in Focus -- China may cut rates again to ensure "gentle slowdown" doesn't turn ugly

On the ground, things don't seem so bad in China. As I report from Suzhou, China I see construction booming on both a residential level on in terms of infrastructure. However as Bloomberg LP paints in a article you can view here, things aren't so pretty on a macro level.

Actually they may depend on what you think "pretty" is. Economic growth will slow this year. 3rd Quarter growth in 2008 when released is expected to come in at around 9%, down from 2007's astounding 11.9%. Considering the state of the global economy many argue 9% is still quite healthy. However for a country seeking to fast track its economic development and solidify its position in the global economy the slowing growth rate is not welcome news.

The government is acting quick to stem the problem, having already reduced interest rates three times in the past two months. Will it be enough? Probably not...

For one, the reckless speculation from abroad and domestically on Chinese equities has fully exploded in investors faces this year (including my own). The CSI 300 is down a whopping 69% in 2008 so far, and has not seen the rallies other Asian markets like Hong Kong, Korea and Japan have seen when the west introduced their respective bailouts, lowered interest rates and set up new lending facilities.

Chinese Media, Xinhua reports export orders dropped in the 3rd quarter to their lowest level since 2005. Home sales have plunged 59% in Beijing and 39% in Shanghai so far in 2008.

All this looks bleak, but a casual observer may add that between 2005 and 2008, both Beijing and Shanghai have continued to grow rapidly. Few can deny the changes which have manifested in each city in the past 3 years, not to mention the rapid change which occurred between 2000-2005.

My observations are simple. China was indeed growing too fast for its own good, this financial crisis is simply bringing it back down to reality. China will continue to grow but due to the nature of its export oriented economy it must do so within the context of the world economy. All the while it does have the capacity to cushion its own slowdown with its domestic economy and macro policies which will help spur growth in the domestic market.

Check out this Bloomberg article to get a full picture.


Monday, July 7, 2008

Chinese stocks (on the mainland) surge over 4.5% in their biggest gain in over a month

The Shanghai Composite index which tracks the daily price performance of all A-shares and B-shares listedon the Shanghai Stock Exchanger rose 4.59% Monday.




The CSI 300 Index, a cap-weighted listing, tracks the daily price performance of the 300 most representative A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai + Shenzhen Stock Exchanges rose 5.13% on Monday trading.

Chinese markets are souring? The short answer (in my opinion):

- Financial on the mainland report better than expected earnings and developments
- Speculative investing in Olympic related Stocks.

- Oversold market
- Lower crude oil prices

For a full story, following the rise in China last night, check out the following story from Bloomberg LP.

China Stocks Advance Most in Three Weeks; Merchants Bank Rises
-- Click here for full story

By Zhang Shidong and Chua Kong Ho

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks rose the most in almost three weeks, led by banking shares, after China Merchants Bank Co. and China Citic Bank Corp. said first-half earnings probably more than doubled.

Merchants Bank, the country's most profitable bank, had its biggest jump in more than two months. Citic Bank, the banking unit of the nation's largest investment company, gained for a fourth day. Beijing North Star Co., the city government's property arm, jumped on speculation next month's Olympic Games will lure more tourists to the capital city.

``Fundamentals are very strong in China compared to any other Asian nation,'' said Liu Yang, managing director at Atlantis Investment Management Ltd. in Hong Kong, which oversees about $4 billion in assets, in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``Chinese stocks are trading at crisis valuations. Do they deserve to trade at crisis valuations? The answer is no. The market deserves a very good rebound from here.''