Chile's state copper commission Cochilco predicts the price of copper will average $1.60/lb in 2009 and $1.50/lb in 2010.
Cochilco executive VP Eduardo Titelman explained at a Santiago news conference that the demand for copper in 2009 and 2010 is likely to be "modest."
Considering Chile is the world's biggest producer of copper, it is good the country invests a lot of energy into copper forecasts. Check out the chart on this post from IncaKola News comparing Cochilco's copper forecasts with the real market prices between 2005 - 2009.
I'd say they do a pretty decent job, most of the time that is...
For major copper producers like Chile and Peru this might spell bad news. Both depend heavily on copper which in 2007 averaged $3.23/lb. If Cochilco's predictions are correct, the two countries should trim their spending over the next two years.
However this may prove difficult for Chile and Peru to do with upcoming elections and the looming global recession in the background. Chile is fortunate to have stashed away significant reserves from the boom years. Peru is not as lucky and will find it even more difficult to trim its spending than it's southern neighbor which has proved on various occasions it is far more capable of exercising restraint and making sound economic decisions when necessary.
Showing posts with label cochilco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cochilco. Show all posts
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Latin America in focus: Commodities, food and South-South Cooperation (delayed post from Oct 30)
1) Brazil Petrobras agrees to explore for oil offshore Cuba – Benito's take
Brazil frequently enjoys assuming the role as a leader in the developing world of promoting South-South Cooperation. This time the nation has agreed to help Cuba explore for oil and gas. Brazil's Petrobras is expected to sign an agreement with Cuba for deep-water oil and gas exploration during President Lula da Silva's two day visit to the island this week.
Cuban media is reporting both sides will “sign a contract for the production of hydrocarbons.” No further details have been reported, but the Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque has stated he “anticipates Cuba will sign in the presence of Lula da Silva a very important agreement for oil exploration in deep water.”
Although the details are shady at best, it no less is a sign of Brazil further developing its reach in promoting economic cooperation among developing nations, with the pretext of mutual economic development.
To read more about this development check out this article published by Merco Press.
2) Petrobras Transpetro unit won't delay 49-tanker plan (update 2) courtesy of Bloomberg LP
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The transport unit of Petroleo Brasileiro SA will be able to maintain a 49-ship fleet expansion program because it has sufficient financing from a government fund and can ignore the world credit crunch, the unit's president said.
Brazil's Merchant Marine Fund, managed by state-development bank BNDES, has enough cash to pay the $2.5 billion needed for 26 tankers that have already been ordered, said Sergio Machado, president of Rio de Janeiro-based Transpetro, as the unit is known. The fund can also finance another 23 ships that will be ordered by the end of the year, he said.
State-controlled Petrobras, as Transpetro's parent is known, may delay some investments as oil prices fall and credit becomes scarce, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said Oct. 20. The credit crunch may force the cancellation of 20 percent of the deepwater oil rigs under construction, Brian Uhlmer, analyst at Pritchard Capital Partners in Houston, said.
``Everything regarding our shipbuilding program is defined and is part of Brazil's strategic plan,'' Machado said in a phone interview from his office. ``The Transpetro program is fully financed.''
Click here to access the full article from Bloomberg LP
3) Favorable 2009 beef export prospects for Brazil and Argentina, courtesy of Merco Press
Beef exports are forecast to rise nearly 2% during 2009 as gains by Brazil, Argentina and the United States outweigh downturns in Australian and New Zealand shipments according to the US Cattle network.
As the world’s leading trader Brazilian exports are forecast to spring back nearly 5% to over 2.0 million tons. Shipments are projected to decline in 2008 for the first time since 1996. However, by overcoming sanitary barriers, it is now poised to regain sales to Chile, EU-27 and other key markets...
...
In Argentina exports are forecast to expand 20% to 480,000 tons in 2009 after plummeting an expected 25% in 2008.
The rebound stems from the Argentine government setting a higher export quota, cattle and beef supplies not expected to be limited by farmer strikes, and thermo-processed product to be exported outside of the quota.
Click here to access the full article from Merco Press
4) Venezuela books 10.252 billion barrels more in oil reserves, courtesy of Dow Jones Newswires
Venezuela said Wednesday it was adding 10.251 billion barrels of crude to its national reserves as part of an ongoing review of its hydrocarbon reserves.
With this increase, the oil-rich country's total reserves now amount to 152.561 billion, making Venezuela the country with the second largest crude reserves, the Venezuelan oil ministry said in a statement.
Click here to access the full article from Rigzone
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=68576
5) Chile trims 2008 copper output forecast again, courtesy of the Mining-Journal
Chile on Wednesday trimmed its 2008 copper output forecast for the second time since July, this time to 5.45Mt, citing operational issues but not slumping prices for the metal.
Limited financing due to the global credit crisis may delay or cancel some new projects, said Eduardo Titelman, executive vice-president of Chile`s state copper commission Cochilco, one of the world`s leading copper think-tanks.
Copper prices rose above US$2/lb on Wednesday, but they remained less than half the record levels of over US$4/lb hit in July. A global credit crunch and fears the world could enter a recession have hit demand for metals like copper, heavily used in the auto and construction industries.
Click here to access the full article from the Mining-Journal
Brazil frequently enjoys assuming the role as a leader in the developing world of promoting South-South Cooperation. This time the nation has agreed to help Cuba explore for oil and gas. Brazil's Petrobras is expected to sign an agreement with Cuba for deep-water oil and gas exploration during President Lula da Silva's two day visit to the island this week.
Cuban media is reporting both sides will “sign a contract for the production of hydrocarbons.” No further details have been reported, but the Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque has stated he “anticipates Cuba will sign in the presence of Lula da Silva a very important agreement for oil exploration in deep water.”
Although the details are shady at best, it no less is a sign of Brazil further developing its reach in promoting economic cooperation among developing nations, with the pretext of mutual economic development.
To read more about this development check out this article published by Merco Press.
2) Petrobras Transpetro unit won't delay 49-tanker plan (update 2) courtesy of Bloomberg LP
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The transport unit of Petroleo Brasileiro SA will be able to maintain a 49-ship fleet expansion program because it has sufficient financing from a government fund and can ignore the world credit crunch, the unit's president said.
Brazil's Merchant Marine Fund, managed by state-development bank BNDES, has enough cash to pay the $2.5 billion needed for 26 tankers that have already been ordered, said Sergio Machado, president of Rio de Janeiro-based Transpetro, as the unit is known. The fund can also finance another 23 ships that will be ordered by the end of the year, he said.
State-controlled Petrobras, as Transpetro's parent is known, may delay some investments as oil prices fall and credit becomes scarce, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said Oct. 20. The credit crunch may force the cancellation of 20 percent of the deepwater oil rigs under construction, Brian Uhlmer, analyst at Pritchard Capital Partners in Houston, said.
``Everything regarding our shipbuilding program is defined and is part of Brazil's strategic plan,'' Machado said in a phone interview from his office. ``The Transpetro program is fully financed.''
Click here to access the full article from Bloomberg LP
3) Favorable 2009 beef export prospects for Brazil and Argentina, courtesy of Merco Press
Beef exports are forecast to rise nearly 2% during 2009 as gains by Brazil, Argentina and the United States outweigh downturns in Australian and New Zealand shipments according to the US Cattle network.
As the world’s leading trader Brazilian exports are forecast to spring back nearly 5% to over 2.0 million tons. Shipments are projected to decline in 2008 for the first time since 1996. However, by overcoming sanitary barriers, it is now poised to regain sales to Chile, EU-27 and other key markets...
...
In Argentina exports are forecast to expand 20% to 480,000 tons in 2009 after plummeting an expected 25% in 2008.
The rebound stems from the Argentine government setting a higher export quota, cattle and beef supplies not expected to be limited by farmer strikes, and thermo-processed product to be exported outside of the quota.
Click here to access the full article from Merco Press
4) Venezuela books 10.252 billion barrels more in oil reserves, courtesy of Dow Jones Newswires
Venezuela said Wednesday it was adding 10.251 billion barrels of crude to its national reserves as part of an ongoing review of its hydrocarbon reserves.
With this increase, the oil-rich country's total reserves now amount to 152.561 billion, making Venezuela the country with the second largest crude reserves, the Venezuelan oil ministry said in a statement.
Click here to access the full article from Rigzone
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=68576
5) Chile trims 2008 copper output forecast again, courtesy of the Mining-Journal
Chile on Wednesday trimmed its 2008 copper output forecast for the second time since July, this time to 5.45Mt, citing operational issues but not slumping prices for the metal.
Limited financing due to the global credit crisis may delay or cancel some new projects, said Eduardo Titelman, executive vice-president of Chile`s state copper commission Cochilco, one of the world`s leading copper think-tanks.
Copper prices rose above US$2/lb on Wednesday, but they remained less than half the record levels of over US$4/lb hit in July. A global credit crunch and fears the world could enter a recession have hit demand for metals like copper, heavily used in the auto and construction industries.
Click here to access the full article from the Mining-Journal
http://www.mining-journal.com/Breaking_News.aspx?breaking_news_article_id=5174
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
News Line: Commodities in Focus - China, Vietnam, Italian Investments in Peru and Venezuela, Petrobras to suffer from global credit crisis
1) Falling prices give China chances to buy copper mines -- reports Mining Journal Online via Reuters
Falling copper prices are providing opportunities for cash-rich Chinese firms to buy overseas resources, a senior executive at China Nonferrous Metal Mining said on Monday...
...
"The winter is coming. It may be a good timing for Chinese firms to go out to buy resources," Liu Guoping, director of the exploration department at China Nonferrous, said at the conference. Liu said some overseas exploration firms might find it difficult to obtain funds to finance their projects, giving cash-rich Chinese firms good opportunities to buy their assets...
...
Liu at China Nonferrous said Chinese firms had acquired copper resources in the past few years at high prices as China`s need for the raw material rose. The demand for imported copper materials would stay strong in the long term. Jiangxi Copper, China`s top producer and the owner of the country`s largest open-pit copper mine in Jiangxi, will need to import 70% of its materials for refined copper production by the end of this year when its capacity rises by nearly 30% to 900,000t/y, president Li Yihuang said.
Click here to view the full article, courtesy of Reuters and Mining Journal
2) Saipem wins $1.1 billion contracts in Peru and Venezuela
Italian oil and gas industry contractor Saipem announced it had won onshore drilling contracts in Peru and Venezuela worth a total value of about $1.1 billion...
Click here to access the full article, courtesy of Living In Peru
3) Vietnam Lion Field Fires up production offshore Vietnam
Cuu Long Joint Operating Co. has commenced oil production from the Su Tu Vang (Yellow Lion) field located in Block 15-1 offshore Vietnam, according to a Dow Jones Newswire citing the Thoi Bao Kinh Te newspaper. Su Tu Vang, estimated to be Vietnam's fourth-largest field, is situated in the Cuu Long Area near the Bach Ho, Rang Dong and Ruby Fields and was discovered in 2001. The 'Yellow Lion' field is set to produce 65,000 barrels of crude per day...
Click here to access the full article, courtesy of Rigzone
4) Credit crunch may block 20% of deep oil rigs, slow Petrobrad reports Bloomberg LP
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- As many as 20 of the 100 deepwater oil rigs on order worldwide may be delayed or canceled as loan availability erodes, possibly slowing developments including the biggest petroleum discovery in the Americas in three decades...
...
Falling copper prices are providing opportunities for cash-rich Chinese firms to buy overseas resources, a senior executive at China Nonferrous Metal Mining said on Monday...
...
"The winter is coming. It may be a good timing for Chinese firms to go out to buy resources," Liu Guoping, director of the exploration department at China Nonferrous, said at the conference. Liu said some overseas exploration firms might find it difficult to obtain funds to finance their projects, giving cash-rich Chinese firms good opportunities to buy their assets...
...
Liu at China Nonferrous said Chinese firms had acquired copper resources in the past few years at high prices as China`s need for the raw material rose. The demand for imported copper materials would stay strong in the long term. Jiangxi Copper, China`s top producer and the owner of the country`s largest open-pit copper mine in Jiangxi, will need to import 70% of its materials for refined copper production by the end of this year when its capacity rises by nearly 30% to 900,000t/y, president Li Yihuang said.
Click here to view the full article, courtesy of Reuters and Mining Journal
2) Saipem wins $1.1 billion contracts in Peru and Venezuela
Italian oil and gas industry contractor Saipem announced it had won onshore drilling contracts in Peru and Venezuela worth a total value of about $1.1 billion...
Click here to access the full article, courtesy of Living In Peru
3) Vietnam Lion Field Fires up production offshore Vietnam
Cuu Long Joint Operating Co. has commenced oil production from the Su Tu Vang (Yellow Lion) field located in Block 15-1 offshore Vietnam, according to a Dow Jones Newswire citing the Thoi Bao Kinh Te newspaper. Su Tu Vang, estimated to be Vietnam's fourth-largest field, is situated in the Cuu Long Area near the Bach Ho, Rang Dong and Ruby Fields and was discovered in 2001. The 'Yellow Lion' field is set to produce 65,000 barrels of crude per day...
Click here to access the full article, courtesy of Rigzone
4) Credit crunch may block 20% of deep oil rigs, slow Petrobrad reports Bloomberg LP
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- As many as 20 of the 100 deepwater oil rigs on order worldwide may be delayed or canceled as loan availability erodes, possibly slowing developments including the biggest petroleum discovery in the Americas in three decades...
...
Norway's Sevan Marine ASA has lost 70 percent of its value this month amid concern it won't get financing for two drilling units. Houston-based Atwood Oceanics Inc. said Oct. 16 that it won't exercise an option to build a deepwater rig at Jurong Shipyard Pte. Ltd. in Singapore. New rigs were being ordered to ease a shortage of deepwater gear needed to exploit offshore prospects like Brazil's Tupi, announced in November by Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras.
``Petrobras would probably be the dominant oil and gas company that gets hit by this,'' Uhlmer said.
Jose Sergio Gabrielli, chief executive officer at state- controlled Petrobras, said the Rio de Janeiro-based company may need to help find financing for some of its suppliers. ``We are concerned about the supply chain of products for Petrobras,'' Gabrielli told reporters at a conference in Houston last week...
...
Click here to access the full article, courtesy of Bloomberg LP
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